أخبار السـلاحف

[أبو عبد الله]

البيانات الأمريكية

الساعة 05:00 عصراً
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[أبو عبد الله]

نتائج البيانات الأمريكية

مبيعات البيوت الجديدة ( ابريل)
التوقعات 860 الف
الحـــالي 981 الف


__________________________

الخبر: إيجابي سلبي غير مؤثر

[AbuRomi]

Dollar strengthens after better than expected new homes sales report which rose 16.2% to 0.98M annualized rate in Apr, much stronger than expectation of 0.86M and being the fastest jump in 14 years. Recent housing data has been mixed and markets will turn attention to tomorrow's existing home sales on more evidence on whether the worst in the US housing markets is behind us.
Other US data are mixed. Durable goods orders rose less than expected by 0.6% in Apr, comparing to expectation of 1.0%. However, ex-transport orders rose much stronger than expected by 1.5% comparing to consensus of 0.6%. Also, there were strong upward revisions to Mar's data with headline orders up from 3.7% to 5.0% and ex-transport orders up from 1.4% to 1.5%. Jobless rose more than expected to 311k.
Euro was a tough weaker after Germany Ifo Business Climate which held steady at 108.6 in May, missing expectation of a rise to 108.8. Also, the Current Situation index dropped slightly from 113.1 to 112.5 though Business Expectation index rose slightly from 104.3 to 104.8. After all, business confidence is still firm high in the Germany and points to solid growth down the road.

[أبو عبد الله]

النفط في نايمكس يهبط اكثر من اثنين في المئة

نيويورك (رويترز) - تراجعت اسعار النفط الخام في التعاملات الاجلة ببورصة نيويورك التجارية نايمكس يوم الخميس اكثر من اثنين في المئة مع توقع ان يؤدي توقف مصافي نفط عن العمل الى تقليص الطلب على النفط وزيادة المخزونات.

وزاد البنزين نحو اثنين في المئة فيما ينظر الى مشاكل مصافي النفط باعتبار انها تتسبب في بطء تكوين مخزونات قبل بدء فصل الصيف الذي يشهد ذروة في الطلب.

وهبط الخام الامريكي الخفيف في عقد يوليو تموز 1.52 دولار بنسبة 2.3 في المئة الى 64.25 دولار للبرميل. وجرى تداول العقد في نطاق 63.82 دولار و 66.15 دولار.

[أبو عبد الله]

يورو دولار بالمستجدات التقنية وامكانية العمل بالمدى المتوسط

نعتبر الان ان اليورو يحصن خسائره السابقة قبل الزيادة عليها . نعتبر ايضا باستمرار ان محيط ال 3530/70 حصينا وامكانية مقاسه لا تزال واردة قبل تسجيل تراجعات جديدة حتى محيط ال 3300 مستوى خط الترند التصاعدي . الوضع الحالي يقوي الاعتقاد بكون ال 3680 تعتبر قمة غير قابلة للكسر بالمدى المنظور, وبدون مستجدات يكون بامكانها قلب المعادلات التقنية السائدة . طالما ان ال 3570 قادرة على حماية السوق من الاعلى فانه سيستمر بالتعرض للضغوط .


بورصة إنفو

[أبو عبد الله]

يورو ين بالمستجدات التقنية وامكانية العمل بالمدى المتوسط

لا نبدي عجبا تجاه صمود مقاومة ال 164.00 وهذا ما كنا نتوقعه واشرنا اليه سابقا . لا نزال نرى تراجعات انطلاقا من هذا المستوى علما ان المؤشرات التقنية تظهر عليها الدينامية التعبة للسوق وهذا ما يدعم التراجع الحاصل . ال 160.70 يمكن اعتبارها هدفا . كسر ال 163.00/162.90 سيزيد من ضعف الدفع التصاعدي وكسر ال 162.60 سيكون ايضا فاتحة تراجع تالية له .



بورصة إنفو

[أبو عبد الله]

دولار فرنك بالمستجدات التقنية وامكانية العمل بالمدى المتوسط.

المحاولة الاولى سقطتت امام ال 2320/50 والمقاومة هنا لا زالت جيدة . التراجع وجد على مقربة من ال 2220 دفاعا وهو لا يزال ايضا على حصانة عالية . كسره سيعطر ال 2190/00 الدور الدفاعي الذي نعتبره مؤهلا له بكفاءة . طالما ان الدولار متواجد بالحد الاقصى فوق هذا الحد سنستمر باعتبار التطلع الى مقاس ال 2320/50 مرة جديدة واردا وربما تجاوزها ايضا ان سمحت الظروف البيانية بذلك .

بالمدى المتوسط لا نزال نقدر ان السوق مستمر بالمراوحة بين خط الترند التصاعدي المنطلق منذ سنتين وخط ترند تنازلي منطلق منذ 15 شهرا . حاليا تم مقاس الخط الاعلى لهذه المساحة وهي على صمود , اما في حال كسرها والاقفال فوقها فالمجال سيكون مفتوحا لاحقا لارتفاعات باتجاه محيط ال 2575 .



بورصة إنفو

[أبو عبد الله]

البيانات اليابانية


الساعة 02:30 صباحاً
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[أبو عبد الله]

البيانات الأمريكية


الساعة 03:00 صباحاً
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[أبو عبد الله]

بيانات يوم الجمعة


25 / 5 / 2007

[أبو عبد الله]

البيانات الأوروبية


من الساعة 09:00 إلى الساعة 9:45 صباحاً
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[أبو عبد الله]

البيانات السويسرية


الساعة 09:15 صباحاً
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[karrar]

UBS Investment Research
The Morning Adviser
Views
Singapore, 25 May 2007
www.ubs.com/fx
Nizam Idris
USD: Supportive data persist
JPY: CPI as expected
CHF: KOF to come
EUR: IFO in line
MYR: DPM Najib wants stronger ringgit
CNY: Dialogue concludes with mixed message
COP: Colombia introduces capital controls
Tech: GBPUSD recovers towards 2.0000
G10 FX
USD: Supportive data persist
The US saw a couple of strong housing and durable goods orders data yesterday. New home sales jumped 16.2% m/m in
April, while orders for durable goods excluding the volatile transportation orders rose 1.5% (consensus: 0.6%, UBSe: -
0.5%) after a similar growth seen in March (revised upwards from 1.4%). The back-to-back gains in these core capital
goods orders reversed most of the declines in January and February. This should be supportive of the view that the
manufacturing sector is holding up well while the feeble housing market is probably finding its feet. Jobless claims
remained at a relatively low level at 311k in the week ending May 19. The four-week average slipped to 303k from 306k
and was down from 333k a month earlier. These data pushed yields higher and the December Fed Fund futures shed
most of the rate cuts expectations seen earlier this month to currently only price in around 40% chance of a Fed rate cut
this year. The consumption side of the US economy is continuing to show strength. Should manufacturing and capital
spending also pick up from the recession-like levels seen earlier this year, the economy would be provided with a shot in
the arm, and Fed expectations would likely stay firm for the near future. We remain short EURUSD and GBPUSD as
trade recommendations. Ahead Friday, existing home sales for April will be released at 1400 GMT and are expected to
be stable versus March home sales. Markets in the US and UK will be closed on Monday.
JPY: CPI as expected
Japan’s April CPI data came in as expected, with core nationwide CPI declining 0.1% y/y. The broadly within consensus
data will not provide much direction for the JPY, clearing the way for the market to focus on the jobs, retail sales and
industrial production data due out next week. Early Thursday, the head of the ruling LDP panel on monetary policy told
news sources that Japan would not be ready for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in July, even after the upper house
elections. In a warning that resembled that of LDP secretary general Nakagawa’s comments last week, panel leader Goto
noted “we’re not in a situation where the BoJ can forcefully go ahead with a rate rise.” The LDP also found an unlikely
ally in the IMF, whose first deputy managing director John Lipsky said the BoJ should delay rate moves amid tame
inflation. The BoJ continues to pursue rate normalization with a long-term view to pre-empt inflation, and also to adjust
imbalances caused by current monetary policy. With market risk sentiment maintaining strength, the carry trade has
performed well but a return of deflation and creeping pressure from the government have kept the central bank’s hands
tied. At present, we do not see a short-term recovery in the JPY, but sharp risk aversion precipitated by China-US trade
tensions or collapse in the Shanghai stock market will be positive for the currency. We remain neutral on USDJPY for
Page 2
The Morning Adviser
UBS 2
now and continue to target the pair at 121 in one month.
CHF: KOF to come
Speaking in Basel Thursday on the subject of “Communication, Transparency, and Monetary Policy,” Swiss National
Bank governing board member Thomas Jordan did not specifically refer to the current situation in Switzerland. However,
Jordan provided some insight into a key underlying theme for financial markets, to what degree the SNB wants to be
transparent. Jordan espoused the advantages of high transparency while at the same time, noting the limits to a
transparent monetary policy. According to Jordan, markets currently read the SNB well, thereby hinting that a major
surprise on the monetary front, i.e., an inter-meeting rate hike or a hike by 50bp in one go can largely be excluded.
Looking beyond the SNB meeting on June 14 when we expect the SNB to hike rates 25bp to 2.25%, risks for a rising
EURCHF remain intact. Investors with expectations of 50bp hike may well be disappointed. Long-term inflation
expectations are staying anchored, pass-through effects from a depreciating currency have most likely weakened, and
labor market liberalization is disinflationary. From a balance of payments perspective, a benign macro scenario is
feeding growth assets such as stocks and selected currency pairs. Stock market strength has been supportive of a rising
EURCHF cross with the income from portfolio and direct investments (current account surplus) being reallocated abroad.
We recommend staying out of EURCHF at present levels but would consider repurchasing the cross. We maintain our 1-
and 3-month EURCHF forecasts of 1.63. Ahead Friday, our economists expect the May KOF leading indicator to
decline from April, while the consensus looks for a modest increase.
EUR: IFO in line
The German IFO business climate survey was released early Thursday and came in unchanged over the prior month at
108.6, in line with our estimate but slightly below consensus of 108.8. The IFO index is still very high and consistent
with robust activity growth, which supports our economists’ positive view on Germany and ECB rate forecast. The
details of the IFO index show improvement in manufacturing and wholesale confidence. Retail and construction
weakened. Both French and Italian business confidence fell on the month. Also released this morning, final Q1 data for
Germany confirmed the preliminary release of 0.5% q/q growth and 3.6% y/y growth. Our economists remain positive
on the outlook for Germany, and continue to expect a further 100bp of ECB tightening to 4.75% by 3Q08. The Euribor
curve lost 3-4bp with these releases while the EUR continues to underperform versus most of the other European
currencies. We continue to see the EUR as stretched at current levels, and remain cautious on chasing the currency
higher. Ahead Friday, we expect the June Gfk survey to show that consumer confidence in Germany is at an all time
high.
Emerging FX
MYR: DPM Najib wants stronger ringgit
In a newswire interview yesterday with Najib Razak, the Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister again said that the "true
value" of the MYR is probably higher than current levels, stressing that Malaysia wants a "gradual strengthening” of the
ringgit. He also reiterated the government's intention to eventually internationalise the currency although he doesn’t yet
see the need for allowing the currency to be traded offshore for now. Our positive view of the MYR is based on
expectation of fresh investment interest into the country given the recent drive to liberalisation the foreign exchange
market and to open up the economy to foreign investment including investment into the moribund property market. It
seems plausible that this repeated official call for a stronger MYR is a move to allow the central bank to beef up its
foreign exchange reserves ahead of the eventual internationalising of the currency. We note here that in the 15 months
since the de-pegging of the MYR to November 2006, the BNM bought a total of only US$445mn in reserves according
to our estimates after taking into account valuation effects. Reserve buying however accelerated to US$11.3bn in the 5
months from December 2006, implying an average reserve accumulation of US$2.3bn a month. We note however that
while we have not heard of any exporters complaining about the currency's strength, February and March exports
numbers were weak, especially if commodities are taken out of the equation. Continued weak export numbers may be a
factor that could tamper the pace of MYR appreciation going forward. We continue to hold a long MYR
Page 3
The Morning Adviser
UBS 3
recommendation via the 6-month NDF as part of our EM FX trade recommendation, with a 3-m USDMYR target of 3.35
but we would keep an eye on export performance and comments from exporters.
CNY: Dialogue concludes with mixed message
The US-China Economic Dialogue concluded with some conciliatory comments from the US Finance Secretary Henry
Paulson, saying that China understands "in principle" the need for currency reform towards a market determined
exchange rate system. Paulson also acknowledged that China has stepped up the pace of CNY appreciation in recent
months. But this wasn't reflected in post-dialogue rhetoric out of Washington. Senator Max Baucus said he is "very
concerned" about a lack of progress on CNY reform. Baucus hinted that Chinese officials will hear a much blunter
message on this issue from Congress than it received from Paulson when the Chinese VP visits the Congress Thursday.
With around a year to the 2008 US presidential election, we expect Congress to sound more hawkish than the official
Finance Secretary’s stand on China, which may be counter productive given China's clear dislike for overt external
pressure. We continue to think that China wants to allow the currency to strengthen at a faster pace as it seeks to reign in
money supply but may force the occasional deceleration of the pace of appreciation if it sees large speculative capital
inflows or in reaction to added political pressure from the US. We revise our 1-month USDCNY forecast to 7.62 with
the CNY now within touching distance of our 7.65 1-m forecast made earlier this month.
COP: Colombia introduces capital controls
In the face of the recent fast appreciation of the currency, the Colombian government has introduced capital controls on
portfolio investments, imposing that 40% of these investment is left for six months in a non interest bearing account (or
alternatively pay a fee as a percentage of their total capital). It appears that the last leg of the COP rally has caused a
change of mind within the administration, which earlier had dismissed the possibility of capital controls. These controls
take place immediately. We would expect the currency to weaken and domestic yields to increase.
Technical FX
GBPUSD recovers towards 2.0000
EURUSD keeps its focus lower, as a break of Wednesday’s 1.3414 low would clear the way toward 1.3371, the 0.382
retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Initial resistance is at Wednesday’s 1.3503 high, but only a move above congestive
resistance in the 1.3532 to 1.3545 area would halt downward pressures. USDCHF has pushed above the 1.2285 April 9
prominent reaction high, aiming the broader advance from 1.1994 toward the 1.2353 to 1.2357 area. This zone marks
the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively. Mild support is in the
1.2241 Wednesday’s low. GBPUSD reversed higher from this week’s 1.9677 trend low. Sustained gains above last
week’s 1.9875 previous correction high would mark a turn in the short-term bear trend from the mid-April 2.0134 high.
The next resistance is the 2.0000 May 9 high. Mild support for now is at Tuesday’s 1.9772 breakout high. USDJPY
cleared resistance at the 121.65 February 22 reaction high, shifting focus to the January-February 122.10 to 122.20
double top. Congestion from 120.67 to 120.48 marks initial support. AUDUSD’s penetration of the 0.8230 low exposes
the 0.8170 May 3 low. Only a break of this latter level would bring up the possibility of a downward resolution to the
month-long sideways phase that began at 0.8396. Initial resistance is around 0.8273. USDCAD’s break of the 1.0929
May 31, 2006 multi-year trend low exposes a measured target at 1.0763. The top of congestion at 1.0908 marks initial
resistance.
EURGBP risks 0.6747 support
EURCHF has initial resistance at this week’s 1.6614 high, penetration of which would clear the way for a run at 1.6718,
the next synthetic high from May 1997. Downside, only a break of support at 1.6414 May 11 low would undermine the
bullish theme. EURJPY has good support from last Friday’s 162.60 low ahead of the key 161.08 low from May 11.
Look for a push through the 164.02 trend high to clear the way for a run toward 165.00. EURGBP has pulled away
from the top end of the two-month old trading range at 0.6868. Only a move above there or a break of the bottom of the
range at 0.6747 would establish bullish trend direction for the big picture. For now, the bottom of the range is in view.
Page 4
The Morning Adviser
UBS 4
Key Events
25 May 2007
Source: UBS Global Economics
Country
GMT
Release/Event
Frequency
UBS
Previous Consensus
Japan
23:30 Tokyo-area overall CPI (May)
y-o-y
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Japan
23:30 Tokyo-area core CPI (May)
y-o-y
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Japan
23:30 Nationwide overall CPI (Apr)
y-o-y
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
Japan
23:30 Nationwide core CPI (Apr)
y-o-y
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.1%
Russia
Money Supply
RUB bn
n/a
3250
n/a
United States
0:00 Mishkin speaks on measuring GDP
Germany
6:10 GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun)
Jun
6.5
5.5
6.0
France
6:45 Consumer Spending (Apr)
m-o-m
0.2%
0.7%
0.2%
Spain
7:00 Producer Prices (Apr)
y-o-y
2.5%
2.8%
2.7%
Netherlands
7:30 Producer Confidence (May)
index
8.0
7.0
7.3
Netherlands
7:30 Consumer Confidence Indicator (May)
index
13
12
13
Sweden
7:30 Trade Balance (Apr)
SEK bn
14.0
14.6
12.4
Italy
8:00 Hourly Wages (Apr)
m-o-m
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
United
Kingdom
8:30 GDP (2
nd
release) (Q1)
q-o-q
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
Switzerland
9:30 KOF Leading Indicator (May)
index
1.85
1.90
1.95
Sweden
10:45 Riksbank Dep Gov Nyberg speaks
Mexico
14:00 Monetary Policy Meeting
%
7.25%
7.25%
7.25%
United States
17:00 Existing Home Sales (Apr)
lvl
6.00 mn 6.12 mn
6.12 mn
Mexico
19:30 Balance of Payments (Q1)
USD mn
n/a
-1989
-2250
Mexico
19.30 Unemployment Rate (Apr)
%
n/a
4.01%
3.98%

[karrar]

تقرير مالي المعروف والمسمى المرشد الصباحي بصيغة ملف

[AHMED_100]

الاخ الكريم ابو عبد الله
بعد صباح الخير
تحياتى لحضرتك على المجهود الكبير الذى تبذله ودعاء الجميع لك بوافر الصحة على تعبك ربنا يعوضك بالخير وربنا يوفقك دائما وجمعه مباركة انشاء الله