تقرير قناة بلومبرج ليوم 14/1

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Euro Falls This Week as Trichet Damps Higher-Rate Expectations
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell against the dollar this week as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet damped speculation he will accelerate the pace of interest-rate increases this year.

Traders reduced bets on how fast the ECB will lift borrowing costs after Trichet said Jan. 12 that ``risks to growth existed.'' The euro has gained 2.5 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year on expectations the difference between European and U.S. bond yields will shrink.

``People were really expecting a hawkish statement out of Trichet, and I think they were largely disappointed,'' said John Cholakis, a currency trader in New York at Natexis Banques Populaires. ``They ran for the euro exits.''

The euro declined 0.1 percent to $1.2142 at 5 p.m. in New York yesterday. The U.S. currency fell for a second week against the yen, dropping 0.2 percent to 114.18. The dollar has fallen 3 percent against the Japan's currency since Jan. 1.

The ECB boosted its benchmark rate to 2.25 percent in December, the first increase in five years. Futures indicate expectations policy makers will raise rates at least twice more this year. Wagers on a third increase were trimmed in response to Trichet's comments, which came at a press conference after the bank left the borrowing rate unchanged.

The yield on the three-month Euribor contract due December 2006 fell as much as 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.005 after Trichet's comments. The contracts settle to the three-month euro interbank offered rate, which has averaged 15 basis points over the ECB rate since the euro's start in 1999. It closed at 3.02 percent yesterday.

German Optimism

Expectations that the bank would signal higher borrowing costs grew after reports showed investor optimism in Germany climbed to a two-year high and inflation remained above central banks' target for an 11th month in December.

The euro trimmed its weekly decline yesterday after a government report showed U.S. retail sales rose last month at a slower pace than economists expected. The dollar's weakness extended after Treasury Secretary John Snow said that it isn't a ``worry'' that foreign central banks would diversify away from the dollar.

``It looks like the market doesn't have a strong conviction about the dollar for the moment,'' said Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities in New York.

The dollar advanced almost 15 percent against the euro and the yen last year as the Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark lending rate 13 times beginning in June 2004, to 4.25 percent. The Bank of Japan has kept borrowing costs near zero.

Not `Large'

The dollar has been the weakest of the 17 major currencies to date this year since the Fed's Open Market Committee said in the minutes of its Dec. 13 meeting that the number of future rate increases ``probably would not be large.'' The minutes were released on Jan. 3.

Interest-rate futures suggest traders expect the Fed will raise rates to 4.5 percent at its Jan. 31 meeting. The odds of an increase to 4.75 percent on March 28 were 56 percent yesterday after reaching more than 60 percent earlier in the week.

The yield advantage on U.S. Treasuries over European debt recovered this week after shrinking in the wake of the FOMC statement. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and its German counterpart reached 1.16 percent on Jan. 11, or 116 basis points, the widest since Nov. 4.

`Gaining Momentum'

The euro's weakness was limited this week as the European Commission said the region's economy is ``gaining momentum'' and a pickup in consumer confidence increases the chances of a ``more optimistic scenario'' materializing in 2006, according to an unpublished report to European governments that was obtained by Bloomberg News on Jan. 11.

A separate report on Jan. 11 showed Germany's ZEW investor confidence index rose more than expected, to the highest in two years.

The dollar's gain was trimmed after the Commerce Department said yesterday retail sales excluding autos rose 0.2 percent in December, half the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Overall retail sales climbed 0.7 percent, and November's gain was revised higher to 0.8 percent from a previously reported 0.3 percent.

``We need a lot of strong, consistent data for the dollar to rally,'' said Kathy Lien, a currency strategist at in New York Forex Capital Markets LLC. ``Retail sales was kind of mixed. It wasn't strong enough to support the dollar at the moment.''



To contact the reporter on this story:Michael McDonald in New York at [email protected];

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