بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
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Currencies: USD: From Nominal to Real
Stephen L Jen (New York) Nov 4, 2005
Looking for Further USD Strength, Led by USD/JPY
I believe the USD will strengthen further since it is clearer the Fed will continue its tightening campaign and Hurricane Katrina was not a major factor. The reluctance of macro funds to embrace the strong-USD thesis is healthy for the USD rally. USD/JPY is the most energetic cross, mainly because global equity portfolios are likely significantly under-hedged on their overweight Nikkei exposure. EUR/USD may have more difficulties selling off due to (i) the risk of a rate hike by the ECB and (ii) possible petrodollar reflows.
<SPAN lang=EN-GB style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><FONT color=purple>Nominal variables such as inflation expectations and monetary policy will likely dictate the trend in the dollar in the coming months. Later in 2006, the
