AUD/NZD الأسبوع القادم

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الأخوة الكرام أعضاء هذا المنتدى الكبير بمشرفيه وأعضاءه وزواره

حبيت أشاركم بتشارتين للأسبوع القادم وهو موضوع قابل للنقاش ، وهي للعمله الأستراليه النيوزلنديه كماهو واضح في التشارتين في الأسفل بأن هذه العملة قد كسرت ترند صاعد في آخر السوق بحيث كان هناك عمليه بيع كثبف عليها ، والأسباب هو أن هناك إحتماليه خفض للفائدة الأستراليه وسيكون هناك عده قرارات سيتخذها البنك المركزي الأسترالي يوم الثلاثاء وستكون هذه القرارت بمثابه الفاجعه للأسواق العالميه (مرفق لكم في الأسفل) ، ولذلك ومن منطلق نظرتي البسيطه أؤيد وبقوه الدخول في عمليه بيع هذه العمله الأسبوع القادم .

SYDNEY, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank will seriously consider cutting interest rates at its monthly policy meeting next week, though it is likely to wait until September before easing, according to an unsourced report in a local newspaper.

Bond and bill futures surged after Daily Telegraph columnist Terry McCrann said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would use its post-meeting statement on Tuesday to set out the case for lower interest rates, following two hikes earlier in the year that lifted the cash rate to a 12-year peak of 7.25 percent.

'At its next monthly meeting on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank board will seriously consider cutting the official rate immediately,' wrote McCrann, citing no sources.

However, since such a precipitous cut would be a shock to financial markets, the RBA would first prepare the ground before moving at its September board meeting, wrote McCrann.

'A cut at the September RBA meeting in a little over four weeks is now a certainty,' he said. 'And it won't be the last.'

'It will also want to cut in a controlled fashion,' added McCrann. 'Preferably the same quarters it did on the way up. But the first may be 0.5 percent.'

Investors seemed to take McCrann's report to heart, with bill and bond futures jumping. The three-year bond contract climbed 0.070 point to 93.900, while September bill futures rose 0.110 point to 92.450.

A string of weak economic indicators recently had seen markets price in at least one quarter percentage point cut in rates but not until the end of the year or early 2009.

Yet the probability of an early easing grew on Thursday after government data showed retail sales had slumped 1.0 percent in June, the biggest fall in six years. Credit growth had also slowed dramatically as commercial banks raised mortgage rates and rationed lending amid the global credit squeeze.

'(The RBA) set out to sharply cut over-inflated consumer spending,' wrote McCrann. 'The evidence is very clear that has been achieved. But it doesn't want to be 'too successful''.

Analysts said McCrann had a mixed track record of picking RBA moves but, in this case, felt there was no smoke without fire.

'Just last week he was writing that, if rates went anywhere, it would be up,' said Brian Redican, a senior economist at Macquarie Bank.

'Now he's turned 180 degrees and is saying they could cut next week. An about face like that does suggest he's had a tap on the shoulder from somebody in the know,' said Redican.

Redican thought it would be unusual for the RBA to start easing while core inflation was runing at a 17-year high of 4.4 percent, far above its target band of 2 to 3 percent.

'But maybe they want to pre-empt a further tightening by the banks,' he said.

Commercial banks have raised their mortgage and business rates by over 140 basis points in the past year, well above the 100 basis points of official hikes.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jonathan Standing)

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Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.

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يا أخوان لا يوجد أحد لديه وجهة نظر بخصوص الزوج

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للمتايعه فقط
النزول حتى الآن 200 نقطة خلال يومين