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Reuters economist poll
USD/JPY forecast at 98.50 in 1 month, 102.00 in 3 and 107 in 12
•GBP/USD 1.53 in 1m, 1.51 in 3m and 1.49 in 12m
•EUR/USD 1.3150 1m, 1.2800 3m, 1.2400 12m
•EUR/GBP 0.8610 1m, 0.8560 3m, 0.8390 12m
•USD/CAD 1.04 1m & 12m, 1.05 3m
Poll cites dollar gains from tapering with sterling falling as the Fed change policy before the BOE.
AUD/USD – Light stops above .9170, offers into .9200. Bids at .9130 and .9080 with decent stops under .9070
USD/JPY – Bids from 96.00 through 95.80 with stops underneath in good size
SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY & SP500
The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: All eyes on the 1.3418 resistance. Despite the overbought situation the market also yesterday continued to push higher, and is now trading in close proximity to the important 1.3418 resistance. The slow slide overnight does however look like a continuation pattern so there will at least probably be an attempt to lift the pair above 1.3401, yesterday’s high.
USD/JPY: Close enough? The decline to 95.81 is clearly close enough (to the ideal triangle target of 95.41) to consider a possible completed C wave. To add confidence for a D-wave in progress (heading for 100.30) we basically need to move and close above 97.08. Some other yen crosses such as AUDJPY also looks prone to a move higher (93?).
GBP/USD: band resistance. With yesterday’s move above the prior day’s high the hourly wave pattern has been completed. We will now focus on whether the sellers will return in the 233d ma band (as they have been doing throughout 2013).
S&P 500: Buyer’s a bit hesitant. The bounce from support faded yesterday with the buyer’s apparently hesitating. Furthermore the hourly chart reveals a possible three wave bounce from Wednesday’s low point hence the risk of another test of the 1670/78 support zone looks more likely than not.
EUR/USD - Steady selling from model funds and leveraged accounts with the focus on breaking below 1.3340
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research have today reiterate their base case of a strengthening US dollar through the remainder of 2013.
Bank of America say:
"We continue to expect USD to strengthen against G10.
"There is a risk that the USD rises past our shorter-term targets. Our year-end target for EUR-USD remains 1.25, and
1.22 for the end of 2014. We also look for USD-JPY to move up to 105 for the end of the year as well.
"In general, we forecast the USD to strengthen against G10, with risky currencies absorbing further downside.
The Euro Dollar is forecasted at 1.25 by December, and 11.23 by June 2014.
The Pound Dollar exchange rate is forecasted at 1.51 in December 2013 and 1.52 in June 2014.
RBS foreign exchange rate forecasts: US dollar strength called into question
Foreign exchange analysts at RBS have released their latest exchange rate forecast tables.
In an accompanying note RBS have questioned a steady rally in the US dollar through the remainder of 2013. David Simmonds, Head of Currency Strategy at RBS says:
"Markets looking for an easy continuation of the Greenback’s very strong first half year gains may hence be challenged. US growth recovery remains sluggish and Q2 growth expectations have been revised consistently lower to somewhere well below 1% annualised growth pace.
"Consensus is (yet) again for a stronger pick-up into Q4. But those who are long USD on grounds of absolute optimism over ‘escape velocity’ recovery may be disappointed. For the dollar to strengthen, we may need other factors to enter play."
However, RBS do also caution that there is a relatively unseen source of US dollar strength in coming months.
Simmons says:
"There is another important potential source of dollar strength in the second half of this year which bears some re-emphasis. Despite a Fed-led fight back on the “tapering is not tightening” monetary policy message, the late July reality is that real interest rates in the US have risen significantly further out on the curve.
"For a long time now, global markets have only known real rates that are: (a) negative; and (b) always falling, getting more negative. Suddenly, whether “tapering” talk is or is not “tightening”, the fact is that real rates: (a) are not negative any more, they are positive; and (b) they have surged higher."
USD/JPY – Stops in good size under 96.00 are beginning to attract leveraged money
EU profit taking ahead of the weekend
The EUR/USD losses some ground this Friday, having been as low as 1.3348 so far, in which seems some profit taking ahead of the weekend. Another day of falling stocks is taking its toll also putting high yielders under pressure. The EUR/USD hourly chart shows price below its 20 SMA, capping the upside now around 1.3375, while indicators head south in negative territory, pointing for a short term downward continuation: immediate support comes at 1.3340 area, where a short term ascendant trend line should attract buyers. Once below, next batch of bulls is aligned at the 1.33 level.
Support levels: 1.3340 1.3300 1.3265
Resistance levels: 1.3375 1.3415 1.3445
EUR/USD
USD/CAD turns around like an unemployed
USD/CAD tried the upside and narrowly took out 1.0352 but it has been hammered back down toward the lows of the day at 1.0305.
I was skeptical of USD/CAD weakness yesterday but this move is harder to doubt. Key support is down in the 1.0280 zone and the July low at 1.0246.
AUD/USD – Stops above .9200 have been cleared
GBP/USD - Strong demand noted around 1.5480/70
EUR/USD continues to be steadily sold. Bids from 1.3320 down to 1.3300, stops below 1.3290
EUR/USD
EURUSD - Weekly Forecast 12-16 Aug 2013
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum last week , printed a critical support on the weekly chart at the 1.3230 levels, the EURUSD will have hold above the 1.3230 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains, stability above the 1.3230 levels will build a pressure on the 1.3415 levels, break of 1.3415 will have large bullish implication towards 1.3710 , above 1.3710 will focus on the 1.4200 /1.4500 as well as 1.5000.
On the downside, losing the 1.3230 levels on a weekly closing basis will print a new top , If seen , this development is likely to weaken the current bullish run in medium term outlook , but downside below 1.3230 is likely to be contained well above the 1.3000 levels , below 1.3000 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2750 levels.
On the daily chart , although the pair maintained some bearish momentum last Friday, but it remains very bullish, losing the 1.3332 levels on a daily closing basis will confirm short term topping at 1.3400 levels, next support is 1.3265 where halt is suggested , but below 1.3265 will focus on the 1.3165/85 as well as 1.3060 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.3332 levels could mean a return to the 1.3400 levels,If seen a breach is likely , above 1.3400/415 will have large bullish implication towards the 1.3710 levels.
Support - 1.3332, 1.3265, 1.3165, 1.3060, 1.2992, 1.2922, 1.2755
Resistance - 1.3415, 1.3615, 1.3710
Trend Strength - daily chart :
Very Bullish : above 1.3332
Bullish : above 1.3265
Neutral : below 1.3265
Bearish : below 1.2922