== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

Commerzbank - EUR/USD Stalling At Trend Line Resistance; Time To Sell

EUR/USD has failed on its last few attempts to have a clear break above 1.3300, notes Commerzbank.

"Directly above here lies the 2013 resistance line at 1.3331 and the key resistance at 1.3360/1.3417. This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet and we look for it to hold the topside and provoke failure. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and this offers additional resistance at 1.3325," CB projects.

"We continue to favour failure and a slide sub 1.3000. The market stays bid intraday above 1.3165. Below here targets 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB adds.

In line with this view, CB advises clients to reinstate EUR/USD shorts today from 1.3275, with a stop at 1.3425, and to add to these shorts on a further bounce into 1.3370.

The rally in USD strength being slowed by short-term specs taking profits, but larger accounts still buying USD dips

Crude rallied to $109 for some reason

That reason wasn’t global growth, which the IMF estimates at 2.2% this year
Supplies aren’t especially tight
looking for crude to fall back to $99, which is the convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the June-July rally and the trendline/old high. The risk is a spike higher due to a hurricane.
Oil shorts are also another way to bet on US dollar strength.

Large US fund selling AUD/USD. Stops under .9050 still intact, but selling interest remains

Demand for EUR/GBP continues helping drive EUR/USD higher against an otherwise bid USD; stops above .8710 in EUR/GBP in sight

USD still being bought on dips by leveraged funds

EUR/USD

Nomura - AUD/USD Bear Flag About To Unfold Further: Levels & Targets

AUD/USD bear flag is still unfolding after respecting .93 resistance, notes Nomura. Such a bearish development, according to Nomura, suggests a further follow up on the downside towards multi-technical targets:

"The entire sideways range can be labeled as a wave-(2) correction of the 1.06-.90 downtrend and once complete suggests another move lower. The rare negative RSI reversal projects down to .8853," Nomura projects.

"S/T prices are approaching critical range lows at .9030/00 but the 1.618 extension of the latest 5 wave decline (.9320-.9130) projects a follow through to .8988," Nomura adds.

On the upside, Nomura thinks that resistance at .9129 will effectively cap in the near term. "With momentum, trend and pattern all pointing lower we expect that level to contain any near-term upside," Nomura clarifies.

Asia Market Report

Market Briefings

•Sovereign selling kicked in for EUR/USD when it hit the 1.3300 figure
•Short-term specs got long before German CPI data and after a failed breach of 1.3300, dumped their positions
•USD was well bid overall after rumors that Obama will be speaking about a potential tax break for corporations that would overall be very USD-positive
•Real money sold AUD/USD as it pulled back to .9100
•Model funds bought EUR/USD on its push up to 1.3300
•A macro fund was a noted buyer of USD/JPY on the tax rumor
•Japanese accounts sold USD/JPY when it rallied to 98.30, holding it back from a further rally
•Large US fund sold AUD/USD later in the session
•Demand for EUR/GBP stayed very constant
•Even later in the session, USD dips were still bought by leveraged funds
•Overall, sentiment is very cautious and erratic with some short-term plays like stop hunts and front-running rumors, but many are staying out with such a big week ahead.

EUR/USD
•Selling interest into 1.3300, more at 1.3350
•Buy stops above 1.3300 quite sizable
•Bids at 1.3200 and 1.3160
•Sell stops under 1.3230 and below 1.3150 in good size

USD/JPY
•Japanese offers from 98.30 through 98.50, more offers in front of 99.00
•Buy stops above the mid figure in good size
•Strong Asian account bids at 97.50, more buying interest ahead of 97.00
•Large stops below 97.50

AUD/USD
•AUD sentiment clearly negative; still, be cautious going in to any trades right now involving USD as many very key events scheduled over the next few days
•Offers from real money accounts at .9100 through .9110, more offers at .9150 and .9200
•Buy stops above .9110 and .9220
•Sovereign bids near .9050 and more strong bids ahead of .9000
•Sell stops in good size under both bid levels

NZD/USD
•Buying dips still the preferred strategy, but as it moves somewhat in line with AUD, be cautious. Again, beware of USD trades until further clarity shows from this week's events
•Offers light from .8000 through .8010, additional offers near .8040, and more in good size ahead of .8100
•Buy stops above .8040 and large over .8100
•Bids solid at .7950 and .7920
•Sell stops in decent size under the mid figure

KEY NEWS :
•Japanese Unemployment rate expected 4.0% (23:30 GMT)
•Japanese Industrial Production (MoM) forecast for -1.8% (23:50 GMT)
•New Zealand Business Confidence prior reading of 50.1 (01:00 GMT)
•Australian Private Sector Credit (MoM) expectations for 0.3% (01:30 GMT)
•Japanese Average Cash Earning (YoY) consensus 0.2% (01:30 GMT)
•Japanese Construction Orders (YoY) prior reading 26.0% (05:00 GMT)
•Japanese Housing Starts (YoY) expected 15.8% (05:00 GMT)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - Stops under 1.3200 large along with momentum funds looking to sell if it breaks. Offers close by at 1.3230

USD/JPY - Japanese exporter offers at 98.50 help slow the rally; large option at 98.30 exerting its magnetism

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by UBS*:

EUR/USD: (Bullish) With the bull trend intact as reflected by the MACD above its zero line, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3297 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3166.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75. A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.87 ahead of 99.64.

GBP/USD: (Neutral) Following the test of significant resistance at 1.5394, the pair came under pressure. This weakness is trading just above key support at 1.5198, a closing break below this would prolong the correction.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) The pair is under pressure and is trading just above 0.8999. A move below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 0.9211.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

Barclays - Sold EUR/USD Targeting 1.28 Ahead Of FOMC & ECB

"The meetings for the FOMC, ECB and BoE this week will be particularly important in defining the near-term paths of the respective currencies. While their overall outcomes may be mixed, we believe the balance of risks lies in favour of establishing short EUR/USD positions once again and yesterday they did as such. FX reaction functions have changed… The July meetings for the ECB and BoE surprised FX markets by formally (ECB) or de facto (BoE) revealing forward guidance frameworks. We argued that these events have changed the EUR and GBP reaction functions to moves in rates and the currencies will be more sensitive to these movements...While forward guidance has worked against the USD in the past month, we think it is unwise to position against it working for GBP and EUR over the coming weeks. Forward guidance is in its infancy relative to the US but we expect it to put a cap on the respective currencies versus the USD as the short-end of the yield curves start to diverge. In light of this, we have entered a short EUR/USD trade (target 1.28, stop 1.3430, spot ref. 1.3266) but would rather wait until the 7 August QIR before looking at GBP downside again."

Chris Walker, FX strategist at Barclays Capital.

Deutsche Bank FX Dealing Desk Report

EUR

Open 1.3255 Support 1.3230 Resistance 1.3325 1.3342 61.8% (fibbo of year’s move)

•After taking out the 1.33 barriers finally yesterday, eurusd has done an about face and remained somewhat heavy ever since. After a tremendously quiet overnight session, looks to be some USD buying on the open as I write but appears EURUSD not the weapon of choice.
•Few stops below 1.3230 which has served as the bottom of the recent range but very difficult to get too too bearish given the data later in the day. I would look to fade that blip lower if we see it early in our session.
•On the topside, which might be slightly more relevant, we have a good early trendline that comes in up around 1.3325. Few sellers lined up in the book 1.3320-40 for the moment. For eurusd bears looking for the single currency to play a bit of catch-up on this mini usd rally, would think 1.3350ish the place to reassess.
• GDP release and FOMC meeting, and Thursday’s ECB meeting all on the docket the next 24 hours, so will try not to get married to anything eurusd early. .

GBP

Open 1.5207 Support 1.5188/98 (21 dma, 38.2% of 1.4814-1.5435) Resistance 1.5283/96 (50% of 1.5752-1.4814 & 55 dma )
•Fairly concerted sterling sales by institutional investors yesterdays flow theme.
•We were encouraged to sell cbl and added on technical break of 1.5290. On this run we are targeting the low 1.50's , conviction would be compromised above 1.5360, good luck..

CHF

Open 1,2325 Support 1,2300 / 1,2250 Resistance 1,2375 / 1,2400
Open 0,9295 Support 0,9280 / 0,9170 Resistance 0,9325 / 0,9360
•The summer is upon us and EURCHF once again opens heavy. Still believe tapering happens in September, but one will have to weather these retracements in the USD patiently.
•Flows have been very light in the Swiss mostly driven by technical models and macros reducing long option structures. Look to own usdchf on a close over .9540 solidifying a m/t bottom.
•With such a large data week we need to await the ADP/Fed tonight and BOE/ECB Thursday in order to find some type of direction for the USD.
•Something that has been pointed out to me has been the lack of orders in orderbooks as corps/RM pull away from FX awaiting more central bank clarity.
•Seems to me the covering has largely all been macro and model focused and so a strong payroll Friday or clarity earlier in the week may bring that supply of ccys back into the mkt. DXY also at a critical juncture down here.
•Today 7GMT the Switzerland KOF Leading Economic Indicator for July ..... consensus 1,22 (last 1,16)

AUD

Open 0.9020 Support .9000 .8910 Resistance .9130 .9345/50
•AUD rates not stopping - now cut fully priced. And more further out peaking at 62 bps. Asian currencies also trading very weak.
•AUD starts to move into fever pitch bearishness at 90 again…. Hmmm lets see how that pans out.
•Was late to the party, but I am short AUD from yesterday around .9080, and will add if we get below .8990. FOMC tonight, ADP, BoE, ECB, NFP … say no more – going to be interesting few days and plenty opportunity..

NZD

Open 0.7975 Support 0.7900 .7685 .7460 Resistance 0.8060 .8140
•Theme continues, NZD outperforms again, AUDNZD continuing as the divergence remains pretty extreme.
•Fonterra up their payout forecast 50 cents to 7.50. Business confidence smalls better than expectation. AUDNZD stretched in the RSIs so suspect finds the going tough now from 1.13 to 1.12.
•Demand remains under 7950. But expect NZD to remain pretty stable – amongst some USD demand generally..

JPY

Open 98.00 Support 97.60 96.95 Resistance 98.50 99.15
Open 130.05 Support 129.60 128.00 Resistance 130.75
•USDJPY remains largely trapped ahead of the busy data and policy week that starts with ADP this afternoon.
•Orderbook still slightly skewed to the downside but marginal now at best.
•Month end to add to the mix. All points to the need to be nimble today. No strong short term view and expect a quiet morning ahead of the data.

CAD

Open 1.0315 Support 1.0220 Resistance 1.0325
•USDCAD grinds its way off the lows as risk turns led by the Aud sell-off.
•1.0250/60 remains stubborn support. Flow yesterday dominated by macro and model demand for UsdCad under 1.0300.
•May GDP on the docket today.

Deutsche Bank - EUR/USD At 1.20, USD/JPY At 110 End-Q4...& Other FX Forecasts

The following are the latest forecasts for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and a selection of other FX spots as provided by Deutsche Bank.

Greece headed back to debtors prison with bailout shortfall at €11B

Lost in all the excitement on the US GDP numbers, the IMF reported that Greece’s bailout needs an additional €11 billion, half of it before year-end. In addition, the IMF says Greece must be relieved of debts about €7.4B to eurozone governments with the next two years.

This means loans to Greece are about to become gifts to Greece.

European leaders have insisted on no more funds for Greece until April 2014 but the IMF may now withhold its funding unless the shortfall is closed by late September. That could cause problems for Merkel with Germans heading to the polls on Sept 22.