== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

EU Brief - London

[10:52 GMT July 9] EUR/USD opened the session with specs in the process of paring back on shorts taken after last week’s ECB meeting and non-farm payrolls. The buying seemed to be largely generated by disappointment over the extent of EUR/USD fall in the wake of those vents. Reasons to be short are unchanged though, and with today’s rally led by squeezes of much bigger shorts in AUD, and other commodity plays, EUR/USD may not go too much further. Indeed there is already talk of decent supply from 1.2900, including sovereigns offers. Large 1.2900 expiries are also likely to generate a lot of supply, whilst there is talk that the early bid in EUTR/USD has led to a build-up in stops from day traders back through 1.2850. jeremy.boulton at thomsonreuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

USD/CHF - Being bought by model funds. More looking to buy if the .9705 level breaks

USD/JPY - Offers from exporters still from 101.30 to 101.50, buy stops heavy above the mid figure. Bids at 100.80 and 100.50 with sell stops under 100.70 in good size. Barrier option for 102.00 set to expire tomorrow

AUD/USD - Large hedge fund offers at .9200 with stops above. Bids at 91.40 and 90.80 with sell stops under 91.20 from corporate accounts. Model funds also going short if price pushes below 91.20

Options Expiries for the NY Cut -10:00AM ET

USD/JPY - 101.00, 101.50, 102.00

GBP/USD - 1.4800, 1.4900

EUR/USD - 1.2820, 1.2850, 1.2900

AUD/USD - .9150

EUR/USD
•Bids at 1.2840, 1.2820 and ahead of the 1.28 barrier option
•Sell stops sub-1.2850 and larger beneath the big figure
•Offers from sovereign account at 1.29, more seen at 1.2920 and 1.2950
•Buy stops above 1.29

GBP/USD
•Bids ahead of 1.48 barrier option
•Sell stops building beneath, not large however
•Offers at 1.4920 in good size
•Buy stops @ 4910, 4960

AUD/USD –stops noted growing larger under 0.9120 and model funds looking to sell on a break below

اقتباس:

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المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة Forexaak

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اقتباس:

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المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة samer1

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اقتباس:

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المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة achraf

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رمضان كريم

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الله يبارك فيك اخي اشرف و نورت الصفحه يالغالي , وفقك الله ورزقك

USD/CAD - Being sold by a US name after Canadian Housing Starts had a slight beat

USD/JPY - Keeping upward pressure as US macro accounts continue to show good demand for this pair

Pound trade-weighted index falls to a four-month low

The pound’s trade weighted index, or “effective exchange rate”, is now down to 79.3, according to BOE figures.
•Yearly high 84.2
•Yearly low 78.00
•Lifetime high 106.7 ( 23rd Jan 2007)
•Lifetime low 73.3 ( 30 Dec 2008)

Just to emphasize the pressure that the pound is currently under
across the broader picture

Source – Bloomberg Copyright (c) 2013

GBPUSD - Weekly Forecast 08 Jul 2013

The GBPUSD continued to decline last week, topped at 15303 and bottomed at 1.4856, now pressure will be on the key support 1.4856, the GBPUSD will have to hold below the 1.4856 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses,Is seen it will target the 1.4600 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.4300 levels, note that a daily close below 1.4856 is an early warning for further decline towards 1.4700/600 levels.

On the upside, resistance is at 1.5130 ahead of 1.5303, so you may short after rejection on daily from 1.5303/1.5130 levels with target towards 1.4700 levels, a daily close above 1.5303 would delay the bearish move, but upside above 1.5303 is likely to be contained well by 1.5465 levels before new sell-off starts.

Goldman Sachs' Current Open Tactical Trades In FX & Rates

The following is the list of Goldman Sachs' current open *tactical trades in FX, and rates as of July 09, 2013.

On FX:

Stay long EUR/GBP, opened at 0.8462 on 8 May 2013, with an initial target of 0.88 and a stop on a close below 0.8350.

Stay short GBP/NOK, opened at 9.20 on 28 June 2013, with an initial target of 8.60 and a stop on a close above 9.46.

Stay long EUR/USD, opened at 1.31 on 01 Jul 2013, with an initial target of 1.35 and a stop on a close below 1.28.

Go long USD vs EM basket (TRY, BRL, ZAR, INR and CLP), opened at 100.00 on 05 Jul 2013, with an initial target of 105.00 and a stop on a close below 98.00.

On Rates:

Stay long 10-year Italian government bonds (BTPs) vs short 10-year French government bonds (OATs), recommended on Sunday 28 April 2013 and initiated on Monday 29 April 2013 at a spread of 221bp, with an initial target of 180bp and a stop on a close above 260bp.

Stay short 5-year French government bonds (OAT FR0011394345) vs long 5-year German government bonds (OBL DE0001141661), opened at 42bp on 10 June 2013, with an initial target of 70bp and a stop on a close below 32bp.

*These trades may differ from Goldman Sachs' longer-term ‘structural’ positions

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USD Buyers Awaiting A Trigger As EUR/USD Set To Test 1.2746 This Wk
Adam Myers, Senior FX Strategist Crédit Agricole CIB

Ahead Of BoJ, BNP Paribas Maintains Long USD/JPY Targeting 105
In its macro portfolio, BNPP also maintains short EUR/USD position via spot targeting 1.2640, with a stop loss placed at 1.3250, short EUR/NOK via spot targeting 7.71, with a stop at 8.1170, and short EUR/AUD via options.

Morgan Stanley Sold $10M USD/JPY For 95, $10M EUR/JPY For 124

Morgan Stanley added 2 recent tactical JPY trades to its macro portfolio: 1) a $10 million short USD/JPY targeting 95.00, with a stop at 101.70; and 2) a $10 million short EUR/JPY targeting 124, with a stop at 131.30.

MS' rationale behind the short USD/JPY call is as follows:

"Although we expect USD strength in 2H13 as the market adjusts to higher US rates, we believe that decreasing risk appetite will likely lead to a near-term USD/JPY correction towards 95. We believe that JPY is becoming the ‘new USD’, in that it has developed counter-cyclical/funding currency characteristics. USD/JPY will likely come under pressure in an environment of decreasing risk appetite." MS clarifies.

MS' rationale behind the short EUR/JPY call is as follows:

"We wish to express our near-term bullish JPY view against EUR as well....Given JPY’s increasing negative correlation with risk demand, we expect the currency to strengthen in a period of risk-aversion," MS adds.

أخواني الاعزاء انا انقل هذه الاخبار والتقارير وكثيرا نرى تضارب الاراء بين البنوك او المؤسسات

الماليه الكبيره فأرجوا اخذ الحذر وعدم المتاجره والدخول بصفقات بمجرد انكم تقرأون هذه التقارير الا

بعد المقارنه مع جميع التحليلات والاقتناع , كما نرى هذا الخبر هو لبيع الين وهدفهم 95 والتقرير

من بنك BNP Paribas يدعمون الشراء وهدفهم 105 , وفقكم الله ورزقكم .

EUR/USD – Stops under 1.2800 noted growing larger – Probability not confirmed yet to hit based on Volume and contract size Offers & Demands .

Barclays - Outlooks & Strategies For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlooks and strategies for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Barclays Capital

EUR/USD: The Inside Day posted yesterday keeps our view unchanged. While below 1.2920, we expect a test of 1.2800 (trendline), a break below which points to the weekly cloud base near 1.2765. A move above 1.2920 would likely trigger light stops though in this scenario, we would look to sell again near 1.2975. In the coming weeks, we expect depreciation towards 1.2600.

USD/JPY: The daily cloud top has dropped to 100.80, increasing the risk of a bullish signal forming in the coming sessions. A close above the cloud would point to further gains towards 102.50. We are patiently awaiting a close above the cloud and also monitoring trendline support at 100.70 and 100. Medium term: bullish to 103.75 and then 105.60.

GBP/USD :The year-to-date low at 1.4830/35 is the next focus as a break lower would likely warn of weakness to 1.4765 and a return to the 2010 low at 1.4250. We remain bearish in the absence of a close above 1.5060.

AUD/USD: Near-term stability is likely a healthy pause within an ongoing downtrend. Channel resistance at 0.9290 should cap bounces for a break below 0.9000 and move to 0.8835/50. Closer to price, resistance is at 0.9200.

Source – Barclays FX

EUR/USD - US leveraged funds selling this pair. Bids strong ahead of the barrier at 1.2800, but stops below 1.2820. More stops from technical accounts in greater size below the 1.2800 barrier

USD/CHF - Breaking .9705 area, expect model funds to begin buying

USD bid across the board; USD-positive sentiment resumes as dealers had expected earlier in the day