Chances of an intervention by either the Bank of Japan or the Swiss National Bank are increasing at an exponential rate.
However,
an intervention by either the SNB or the BOJ will not take place prior to August 2nd. One of the most important
gauges to watch out for in terms of an intervention is the implied volatility. There needs to be two monumental circumstances
to cause an intervention: 1) drastic gains in a currency, and 2) escalation of volatility.
Since the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen
are drastically appreciating with a robust amount of volatility, chances of an intervention can be rationalized. Nonetheless, the
U.S. debt ceiling will be crucial for both of the currencies.
If the U.S. debt ceiling is not raised prior to August 2nd, risk aversion
could continue to spur the Franc and the Yen to the upside, escalating the chances of an intervention probabilities.
However,
if the U.S. passes the debt ceiling a relief rally could push both the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen to the downside.
نفس فكرتك بالظبط يا ابو ادم
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