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الموضوع: Two Types of Trading Losers

  1. #1
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
    العمر
    42
    المشاركات
    2,782

    افتراضي Two Types of Trading Losers

    Two Types of Trading Losers

    There are a whole host of characters who regularly lose money in the market place, and most fall into two catogories:

    1) False Ego Traders

    2) Nervous Traders

    The false ego mistakes come from a mixture of false pride and bravado and are the most dangerous mistakes to make. The trader, generally a beginner or intermediate -- call him Tader A -- gets an opinion in his head about market direction. His analysis may have even been sound, but his opinion keeps him from reading/seeing the signs that a change is occuring in the market he has targeted. He subconsciously see the changes, but false pride is the devil, and blocks the information from making it into his conscious decision making process. The change he needs to see may even be pointed out to him by a fellow trader --Trader B-- but Trader A's false ego blocks this because he knows "I'm smarter than Trader B...In fact I think its a good idea to fade Trader B".

    Trader A is also likely someone who is accustomed to being listened to. He may have been upper management in a company, or even owned the company. "People better listen to me" is how he sees it. He is likely more accustomed to talking rather then listening.

    Despite trader A's previous success' Mother Market will bring him down quickly. Any early success he has in the market will only make for bigger losses down the road as he gets caught in the spiral of trying to make up for lost money and still make money. He doesn't just want to get his money back, he wants that and then some. His time is valuable. He is going to make the market pay.

    Well we all know how that works out, which is to say we won't be seeing Trader A around for long.

    Then there is Trader C, who is a nervous trader. Trader C is nervous because he had a bad day trading early on, and could not stop thinking that if he lost that same amount of money every day, he would be penniless in 54 trading days. Trader C worked hard his whole life, and despite having never got the big promotion or raise Trader C managed to save some money. Trader C is not used to people listening to him. But he is good at seeing things develop around him which makes him sensitive to change. This is a good thing for Trader C, who is more an analyst than a trader. But Trader C can never seem to catch the big one because every time he sees a trade up decent money, he remembers that loser in the begining, and he grabs the money rather then let the profit run. He also sets his stops too tight, and has a hard time following the rules when a trade goes against him. Trader C needs a shot of Trader A's bravado. There are a lot of Trader C's in the market place.

    Often times Trader A types who survive will morph into Trader C types. Trader C though is in his rut becasue he can't seem to make more than he risks.

    The way to avoid being someone who ends up paying the advertising costs for the big Forex firms like Trader's A & C is to understand how dangerous and competitve trading is to begin with. And prepare for it from that mind-set. Be "reality orientated".

    Two things I hear a lot in this busienss:

    #1) I wish I would have started out demo trading.

    #2) I wish I would have stayed in my demo account longer.

    I've been around the trading game since 1980 and I can tell you that most of you will see something in yourself in Trader A & Trader C.

    Believe me, we all have more in common than we are different.

    And when you shine a light on something that had been in the shadows, the shadows disappear.

    Jay

  2. #2
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
    العمر
    42
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    افتراضي Successful Trading = Not Losing




    The road to successful trading is definitely a journey that must pass through the valley of losing onto the plateau of not losing. Once you've made it that far you are in the company of 10%ers. I know you want to hear about the 5%ers, but if you've made it as far as not losing money, it is best to be patient and rest up, and understand there are no short cuts in this game, unless you are willing to increase your losing percentage in exchange for knowledge. I've seen that done before, but it leaves you with knowledge but no money, which is like a bicycle with no air in the tires.

    I prefer trend trading, which is why I've devised the table below. It's very simple really and you could easily create your own table by hand with paper and a pencil, which is what I did for years. The table gives me the current trend on each time frame. I would prefer not to have the 15 minute on there, but it was my mentors wish to include it as he has an endless curiosity with anything related to trading. In fact it was seeing how he prepared for his trading days that inspired me to create this table which we can call a Directional Ratio, or a Trend Map.

    I like the Trend Map because it shows me at a glance which markets are displaying coordination betweent he trends. I prefer to see coordination between the Daily and the trends either side of that. If I have conflict, or divergence between the daily and the 240 or the Daily and the Weekly, I'm much more cautious in my trading and I adjust by using counter-trend tactics. My best defense as a trend trader is knowing how to counter-trend trade. A great example of this came last night. I had taken a swing trade long in GBPUSD on the 60 minute chart because I had coordination on the higher time frames. Because I had a possible breakout on the Weekly chart I was looking for a BIG trade and was bumping up against my maximum risk per my trading plan. I had a 50-pip per lead on the trade, with stops placed and I was preparing to leave the desk for the night. As I glanced at the Trend Map one last time I could see that while I had coordination on the GBPUSD at the time, that most of the other pairs had conflicing trends. Seeing this conflicting price action aka counter-trending markets, particularly in the carry pairs, set off an alert in my head that reminded me that trading is very much about 'NOT LOSING". I took half the position off, and moved the stop on the remainder to break-even.

    This AM I was dissapponted that price had actually slumped lower by 200 pips from where I exited half, and taken my profit away on the other half, but the bottom line was I had a break-even stop in-place and had avoided a losing trade. And that is what trading is all about.
    Jay Norris

  3. #3
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
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    cairo
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    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    مقال رائع منقول للفائده

  4. #4
    الصورة الرمزية peace
    peace غير متواجد حالياً عضو المتداول العربي
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Apr 2008
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    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    شكرا جزيلا مقال رائع فعلا لكن يحتاج الى الترجمه العربيه منك لكى يتقنه من ليس له درايه كافيه باللغه الانجليزيه لكنه فى الزء الثانى يتكلم فيه عن جدول وضعه هو لكى يحدد كل ترند على كل فري كتذكير هل عندك ما تبقى من المقال وشكرا مره اخرى

  5. #5
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
    العمر
    42
    المشاركات
    2,782

    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers


    Writing about trading is simple; writing about why people win & lose is simple enough also also. The key to any writing is that you beleive what you are writing. The tricky part is writing for a large readership. I've come to realize that when it comes to readership the key is presenting the truth in a way that is palatable for the majority.

    The truth in trading, whether you agree or disagree, is there is a difference between ourselves, and our minds. The first is trustworthy, the second is not. The first, ourself, is gifted with intuition, the second, our mind, is ego driven. If you can make that distinction, you are well suited to learning how to trade. Although I know the truth of that statement, it is much better articulated in a quote I found from a Doctor in biology, Carl Calleman, who specializes on human consciousness:

    “…The mind is limited in both time and space. The mind is a set way of structuring our thoughts, producing a constant stream of chatter, comments, evaluations, comparisons and judgments. These judgments and evaluations always lead the modern mind to look for something wrong, either in you, in somebody else, or in the situation. The mind cannot rest in the present; instead it oscillates between past and future, always looking for ways to change things. It is not intent on being…but on becoming…and so leaves no room for peace or satisfaction”.

    That says a mouth full as to why over 90% of retail account holders fail. What that is saying is that our minds are constantly oscillating between what happened in the past and what we think is going to happen in the future. While the reality is neither, it's in between, in the now. We also want to contribute something to the plan for egos sake. Too often we are ignoring the present, or “the now” and trying to form fit our own egos contributions to the process, which is very dangerous. It is only the present that should dictate our trading decisions, and so too we need to realize to take our own mind out of it, and learn to execute without thinking. In keeping our trading decisions focused on the present, or immediate trends, we leave no room for excessive analysis, or analysis paralysis which more often then not handicaps the decision making process, particularly when it comes to risking one’s hard earned money.

    The paradox of all this is that our own minds handicap our intuition!

    Further frustrating those 90+% of traders who regularly lose is thier impatience to become winners. They don't understand, just as I did not for many years, that you can not hurry important learning experiences. To give you another apropos trading quote:

    "The experience of more advanced sciences…indicates that…impatience merely delays progress, including that of the treatment of the burning questions. There is no reason to assume the existence of short-cuts."

    "Theory of Games and Economic Activity", von Neumann and Morganstern, Princeton University Press, 1944

    Sadly for those mind driven account holders, there are no short-cuts.

  6. #6
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
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    42
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    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة peace مشاهدة المشاركة
    شكرا جزيلا مقال رائع فعلا لكن يحتاج الى الترجمه العربيه منك لكى يتقنه من ليس له درايه كافيه باللغه الانجليزيه لكنه فى الزء الثانى يتكلم فيه عن جدول وضعه هو لكى يحدد كل ترند على كل فري كتذكير هل عندك ما تبقى من المقال وشكرا مره اخرى

    اتفضل الجدول فى المرفقات
    وان شاء الله تكون استفدت

    الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة TM4_16_2009AM.png‏  

  7. #7
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
    العمر
    42
    المشاركات
    2,782

    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    5 Tips On How To Bounce Back From Trading Losses: A Trader’s Journey

    Trading is an interesting profession and has no peak as in other occupations. It is in fact an endless journey of discovery of oneself and trading itself. Trading for me at beginning was very tough not that I was not successful in other endeavours but i took it like every beginner thinking that it was easy. With this perception, i approached trading without a plan or proper trading education on how the market works. What do you expect? Your guess is as good as mind. It was a total disaster after taking many losses; i was almost psychologically blown away. At this stage, two important things happened to me, my P&L was in the red and i was down emotionally.

    My worst loss that stands out in all my losses was a trade i took (short EURUSD) in anticipation of French Referendum thinking that it would be in favour of the European Union but alas I got a margin call after the result was negative. Please do not ask me about a stop loss i did put a stop loss but i later removed it because i was so confident it was going to be a winning trade.Hey, can’t you understand. I have been declaring losses so i thought this time around i would take a large position and cover all my losses. I was subsequently charged to court (trading), tried and found guilty (for losses).Punishment, six months without trading. While serving my term i embraced trading education especially technical analysis and trading psychology. So when I got a handle of certain strategies applying technical analysis and trading psychology i started trading again but not without losses but i followed my trading plan anyway and things improved especially when i became comfortable with losses as expenses in the business of trading.

    Valuable Lessons/Tips

    Never Trade Without A Trading Education-acquire proper trading education because the knowledge through trial and error in the market can be more expensive and time consuming than the normal trading education

    Never Trade Without A Plan-Having a trading plan is a most in this business if you want to succeed. This plan most specify and predetermine your entries, exits, stop loss, position size and your psychology(your emotion at the time you click enter).There could be more you could have on your plan but the most important thing is that you must follow it, because when you follow your plan you have a chance of succeeding in trading. You may be tempted to say do I have to follow this damn plan every day, just go to a nearby Airport and observe what pilots do every day; they follow their flight plan and check each one before taking off. He can as well say, i feel better flying without my plan today because I do it everytime.That you know my friend will be disastrous.

    Do Not Be Smarter Than Your Emotion-What do traders do when they are tired? They wait for an opportunity instead of turning off their computers and call it a day they stay on waiting to initiate a position and when the trade turns out to be a loser they become angry adding to the tiredness.Hey,you know what, you cannot win at trading if you are not in your right frame of mind. If you have problems with your spouse please do not trade, if you have a string of losses do not trade, take some time off and go over your losses until you know what went wrong before you can put on another trade. If any thing occupies your mind apart from the market and following your trading plan when you are ready to trade, do all you can to resolve it before you start trading for the day. If you cannot, go golfing.


    Cut Your Losses Shut And Let Your Winners Run.-This one sounds familiar, right. The professionals do exactly as is stated here but what do novice traders do? They do the opposite by letting their losses run and cutting their winners shut. In other words, they are patient with their losses and impatient with their winners thinking that their positions would come back. The hard truth is the market does not know whether you are winning or losing. It will go wherever it wants to go and do what it has been doing, which is moving up, down and sideways. It is now left to you to find opportunities within these up moves and down moves.


    Becoming A Professional Trader Takes Time –This might sound funny. Do not ask any trader to tell you how many years it will take you to become a professional/experience trader. The truth is that real professional traders know that the education of a trader never ends. It is ongoing because market is not static, it changes so if you think you have acquired enough trading knowledge and market conditions change and you cannot cope with the changes you automatically become a learner. The fastest way to become a good trader is to learn from the professional traders (their strategies and how they apply them) taking into consideration your own psychological make up


    آخر تعديل بواسطة شريف دعبس ، 22-04-2009 الساعة 05:48 PM

  8. #8
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
    العمر
    42
    المشاركات
    2,782

    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    How To Trade Pullbacks With 5 Key Technical Tools


    Trading forex can be both interesting and rewarding if one can spend the time learning how it really works. First you have to build a base or foundation. That includes developing a strategy that works for you, finding good money management techniques and training your mind to be disciplined in all facets of trading. Remember, at the end of the day you must muster up enough courage to pull the trigger for any strategies developed to work
    What you will learn in this article is a pullback trading strategy that utilizes stochastics, simple support and resistance as well as Fibonacci retracement ratios to time trades in the direction of the primary trend. In my personal opinion, simple strategies work best in trading. And as simple as this strategy appears, keep in mind that no system is a bad system as long as it works and produces results for the owner. My honest advice is that you should stick to what works for you. If your strategy produces more winners (profits) than losers (losses) stick with it but re-evaluate it from time to time because market conditions might change so re-evaluations allow you to incorporate new changes in the market you trade into your strategy.
    Terminology Used In This Article
    Before we go into the discussion of this strategy, it is important for us to understand the key technical analysis tools we will utilize in this strategy. Don’t worry if you don’t fully grasp the definitions below. They will become clearer when I walk you through my strategy.
    Stochastics: Is based on the rule that, within a period of strong market action, a market will tend to close towards the upper end of the range, while in downtrends, the price will close near the bottom of the range. Stochastics is made up of two lines; %K and %D that oscillate between 0 and 100.Overbought and oversold conditions are functions of this indicator which could range between 80 on the upside and 20 on the downside. In addition, stochastics sometimes generates a divergence condition, which occurs when the indicator fails to confirm a move to a new price high or low in the price action.
    Support and Resistance: Resistance is a price level above the market where supply is strong enough to overcome demand while support is a price level below the market where demand is strong enough to overcome supply. Price highs and lows as well trading ranges can exemplify support and resistance. A rectangle pattern tops and bottoms can serve as good examples of support and resistance levels.
    Fibonacci Ratios: Are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 610 etc. Leonardo Fibonacci, an Italian born mathematician around 1170 discovered the relationship of what is now referred to as Fibonacci ratios while he was studying the Pyramid in Egypt. These numbers possess interrelationships, such as any given number is approximately 1.618 times the preceding number and any given number is approximately 0.618 times the following number. Fibonacci levels are relevant to traders because markets often bounce off key Fibonacci price levels. These levels can also act as support and resistance and can be used as projected profit targets.
    Candlesticks: Are a way of displaying the relationship between opening and closing prices during a time interval.
    • If the close is higher than the open - the candle is white
    • If the open is higher than the close - the candle is black.
    Now that the meanings of our technical tools are understood, we will now move on to the fundamentals of this strategy. The parameters are set below:
    1. The strategy takes a top-down approach to analyze allowing it to start from the higher time frames(weekly charts) and drill down to lower time frames(240mins charts)
    2. We look for overbought and oversold readings on the stochastics indicator after a pullback in an uptrend and a rally in a downtrend.
    3. We then watch price actions at our defined support and resistance levels to see if it would hold or violate these levels
    4. After establishing support & resistance, we will now plot our Fibonacci ratios to determine which Fib levels coincide with support and resistance zones, keeping an eye on the stochastic extreme readings.
    5. Our focus is on signals that are going in the direction of the primary trend. We do not take trades or open positions against the primary trends, whether downtrends or up trends.
    6. Lastly, we use reversal candle patterns as our entry triggers. These reversal candle patterns include hammers, bullish engulfing patterns and dojis etc.
    7. Putting it all together: A close above the high of the previous day’s low when the stochastic indicator crosses over from the oversold zone and is above 20 (reading) coinciding with our established support & resistance/Fibonacci retracement and a reversal candlestick pattern gives us an entry

  9. #9
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
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    cairo
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    42
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    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    Step One
    Establishing A Trend: Establish an uptrend (downtrend) on the weekly time frame. In this case, EMAs (50,100 & 200) and trendlines are used to determine the direction of the main trend. Below is a weekly chart of EURNZD cross which has been in an uptrend since July 2007
    الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة eurnzda.gif‏  

  10. #10
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
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    42
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    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    Step Two
    Monitoring Pullbacks: After determining the direction of the trend on the weekly time frame, we will drill down to the daily chart in order to establish the trend (in the direction of the weekly trend) and also monitor pullbacks to know if it meets our strategy as defined above.

    As can be seen below, a pullback is already in place and price has moved into our defined support zone but we still need to drill down further to 240-minute chart to see what price action and the stochastic indicator are doing. If price is hesitating or consolidating while stochastic is oversold, we then look for a reversal candle and a bullish stochastic crossover above oversold zone reading above 20
    الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة eurnzdb.gif‏  

  11. #11
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
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    42
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    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    Step Three
    On the 240-minute chart, price actually stalled ahead of our defined support/fib levels from the daily chart and a few ours later closed above the previous bearish candle to form a bullish candle pattern(bullish harami pattern). Also our stochastic indicator has already turned bullish above the oversold zone on the formation of the bullish engulfing pattern giving us an entry on the formation of the next candle. Stop losses are set 10 pip below the reversal candle
    الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة الصور المصغرة للصور المرفقة eurnzdc.gif‏  

  12. #12
    الصورة الرمزية شريف دعبس
    شريف دعبس غير متواجد حالياً عضو نشيط
    تاريخ التسجيل
    Mar 2007
    الإقامة
    cairo
    العمر
    42
    المشاركات
    2,782

    افتراضي رد: Two Types of Trading Losers

    Conclusion


    This strategy works on both downtrends and uptrends provided its defined parameters are followed. I use it as a swing trading strategy but for those interested in using it for day trading a little adjustment might be needed. Also refining your entries for low risk trades may take you below the 240mins chart, it is still all right as long as you are trading in the direction of the main trend. Depending on how you want to utilize the strategy, either as day trading or swing trading you can set your exit points based on your preferences but for me I like using trailing stops. As stated in the beginning, simplify, simplify, simplify are the words I read every day as I begin my trading day


    I love simple strategies because they work


    Mohammed Isah

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