توصيات اليوم 26-10-2006

[majd_xxx]

Thu. 10/26

Date
Time*

Currency

Data Released

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Thu. 10/26

2:50am

JPY

Corporate Services Price Index m/m

0.3%

0.2%

-0.3%

3:00am

AUD

Leading Index m/m

0.4%

0.2%

0.3%

9:10am

EUR

German Consumer Confidence

9.5

8.8

11:00am

EUR

ECB President Trichet Speaks

11:00am

CHF

Consumption Indicator

1.708

3:30pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

1.5%

-0.5%

3:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

1.0%

-2.0%

3:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

305K

299K

5:00pm

USD

New Home Sales m/m

-0.1%

4.1%

Market trend:

EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USDUSD/CHFEUR/JPYEUR/GBPGOLDCRUDE OILDaily TrendWeekly TrendResistance1.2660
1.2645
1.2615119.90
119.70
119.451.8905
1.8885
1.88651.2740
1.2710
1.2675150.75
150.45
150.150.6745
0.6735
0.6715602.50
600.00
596.0064.00
63.50
62.00Support1.2590
1.2525
1.2490118.85
118.55
118.051.8720
1.8700
1.86501.2605
1.2575
1.2550149.60
148.50
148.300.6685
0.6610
0.6575583.50
580.70
575.7560.00
59.50
58.80

EUR/USD -
At a glance:
Local Support/Resistance comes in at 1.2570 and 1.2610 respectively.
Larger scale key levels of S come into play at 1.2535. On larger scale R we have 1.2665 as major barrier for meaningful advances in the euro against the U.S. dollar.
Summary:
The FOMC laid another goose egg on the markets today, prompting an inability for traders to hold any serious conviction regarding the near term fate of the USD. The action in EUR barley broke the preannouncement range, trading just high enough to knock out stops of traders taking the range and far enough outside the range to trip trend following models into the near worst fill of the day.
Going forward, the market appears to have found equilibrium near the 1.2600 region, with the center of last week’s consolidation just under the highs at 1.2620 posing resistance. On the support side, the European session lows coupled with the confluence of some commonly referenced moving averages at the 1.2570 region may prop things up insofar as advances in USD. Our model suggests traders should focus on these particular levels for appropriating risk in the pair.
We will be monitoring the action as it develops, and clients can expect to receive detailed recommendations as the situation unfolds via FX Universal’s proprietary application DashboardFX™ in real-time.





GBP/USD -
At a glance:
Local Support/Resistance come in at 1.8760 and 1.8785 respectively.
Larger scale levels of S come in at 1.8715. On the R side we have 1.8835 as a sticking point for advances in the Great British sterling against the dollar.
Summary:
Though some are reporting sterling failed to break the 8800 handle following the initial impulse high in the wake of the FOMC announcement, some desks appear to have booked trades above the level by one pip, according to Reuters spot FX dealing system. Not unlike the EUR, sterling too found equilibrium near the same price it had traded prior to the announcement by the nascent leadership of the FOMC, offering little opportunity for speculators to take much off the table.
After wandering higher for most of the day in Asia and European trading, the pair began to capitulate under the forces of longs and shorts between the 1.8750 and 1.8800 range, affording traders who managed to live to fight another day an opportunity trade the levels throughout the remainder of the session. The macro price structure suggests current pricing will continue to attract price, and we have modified our model to reflect this development to improve the accuracy of future signals.

USD/JPY -
At a glance:
Local Support/Resistance comes in at 119.05 and 119.30 respectively.
Larger scale levels of S reside at 118.85 with R at 119.95.
Summary:
Our sources continue to suggest that macro fund traders remain squarely focused on the 120.00 level, as it represents a key psychological barrier and multi-moth high. Importantly, the speculation affords intermediate and short-term traders plenty of liquidity to maneuver through the fray, and we will likely be active in the region if the daily high’s today are probed.
The broader structure suggests the market has a god deal of downside pressure underlying, and our momentum component does concur with this deduction. The indication requires our mode to place orders near the 1900 handle; however, these conflict other measures at this time, and we will not act unless they move to concur in the interim. Clients should reference DashboardFX™ for appropriate risk allocation on a test of today’s lows.

DEC S&P Resist: 1395-1399, 1410-141350 ST Trend: Up
(138920) Supprt: 138650, 137975*-137735* Obj: 139675 TRP: 136610
Comment: The market is bullish, following a bull channel drive. Another close over the 1389 level could spark a strong bull extension, reaching for 1398 and 1410. Any corrections should fight to hold around last week's congestion highs near 137975*- to keep strong upside forces. A close under 137735* cautions for a multi-day pullback, but only a close under 136610* marks a peaking turnover into a multi-week downturn.
DEC DOWJONES Resist: 12200+/-, 12355? ST Trend: Up
(12189) Supprt: 12125, 12080-12073*, 12000 Obj: 12355 TRP: 11977
Comment: The market is bullish with the press to new highs creating a new swing target to 12355. Stable action over 12150+ will encourage pressing advances today-Friday. Be careful for a slip to defensive congestion if trade drops under yesterday's outside range low, triggering setbacks within Monday's bull range to consolidate gains. A couple consolidating days that hold off 12073* support should build for further rallies. A close under 11977* signals a peaking turn for a retracement under 11845-.
DEC NASDAQ Resist: 174400+, 175375, 177400 ST Trend: Sdwys/Up
(174050) Supprt: 171600+, 170650, 170250* Obj: None TRP: 168050
Comment: The market is bullish, but rallies are stalling against a 174000 target. The formation holds a bull alignment and we could see rallies press to test weekly highs at 175375/177400. A close over 177400 alerts for blow off moves. However, further pullbacks from up against last week's highs cautions for near term corrections to test support around congestion high/lows around 171300+/-. A close under 170250* marks a negative turn back to 168050*, testing for a larger downturn.
DEC GOLD Resist: 59460*, 603-606 ST Trend: Sdwys
(59080) Supprt: 586-585, 583, 580*, 57450 Obj: None TRP: 58000
Comment: Near term corrections are bouncing off 580* support. Tues-Wednesday's rebounds alert for corrective rallies to test 59460* resistance. Rallies should struggle trying to retrace over 59460* which in turn will quickly flag congestion back into declines. A close over 59460* signals a return to a bull trend and test of last week's high. A close under 580* and/or drop under 57450 is bearish and calls for secondary declines to test against the last swing low.
DEC SILVER Resist: 1199-12015, 1215-12293* ST Trend: Sdwys/Down
(1189) Supprt: 1170-1168, 1157*-, 1123* Obj: 1123 TRP: 12293
Comment: The break early this week hints for a negative turnover from recent corrections, but ebounds into yesterday's close leave trade back up around the downturn levels near 1200. A sustained press over 1200+ could boost rallies against last week's high, but still be alert for key resistance around 1218-12293*. If trade is reluctant to rally beyond 1200, watch for a slip back today sideways congestion days. A close under 1157* is needed to rekindle negative forces and send declines to 1123*.
DEC CRUDE OIL Resist: 6220-34*, 6255, 6400 ST Trend: Sdwys/Down
(6140) Supprt: 6080-65, 6026*-5999, 5944* Obj: None TRP: 6234
Comment: The main trend is still bearish, but yesterday's sharp surge higher marks a near term positive turn that will push trade to challenge the 6234* resistance point for a stronger botto m. A close over 6234* signals a bottoming turn for an initial retracement to 6400-6500. If trade struggles to sustained rallies over 6234*, be ready for secondary dips along 6026*-. Only a close under 5944* rekindles bear forces to drive the market to attack under this week's low.
EUR/USD

S1

1.2564

R1

1.2650

Action : Buy above : 1.2580

S2

1.2520

R2

1.2694

Target :1.2710

S3

1.2480

R3

1.2742

ST/ L: 1.2500

S4

1.2435

R4

1.2786

GBP/USD

S1

1.8735

R1

1.8836

Action : Buy above : 1.8760

S2

1.8685

R2

1.8883

Target: 1.8900

S3

1.8640

R3

1.8927

ST/ L:1.8670

S4

1.8600

R4

1.8977

USD/JPY

S1

118.53

R1

119.42

Action: Sell below : 119.25

S2

118.06

R2

119.89

Target : 118.10

S3

117.55

R3

120.30

ST/L. 120.10

S4

117.12

R4

120.76

التوقيت
العملة
البيان
المتوقع
السابق
09.10
EUR
ثقة المستهلك ( نوفبر )
8.9
8.8
11.00
CHF
مؤشر الاستهلاك من يو بي اس ( سبتمبر )

1.708
15.30
USD
طلبيات السلع المعمرة ( سبتمبر )
2.0%
-0.5%
15.30
USD
طلبيات السلع المعمرة ما عدا السيارات (سبتمبر )
1.0%
-2.0%
15.30
USD
المستفيدون من تعويضات البطالة الاسبوعية ( 21 اكتوبر )
308K
299K
15.30
CAD
شروط طلبيات التجارة ( اكتوبر )
-1.0
4.0
17.00
USD
مبيعات البيوت الجديدة الشهرية ( سبتمبر)
1.050M
1.050M
17.00
USD
نسبة مبيعات البيوت الجديدة السهرية (سبتمبر )
0.0%
4.1%

اليورو / الدولار الأمريكي
09:00 (+3 توقيت غرينتش)
تحسن وضع اتجاه اليورو بارتفاعه من المنطقة المنخفضة 1.2525 ليوم الثلاثاء، حيث عاد ليختبر المناطق المرتفعة 42/1.2631 ليوم الخميس الماضي. ارتفاعه فوق هذه المناطق سيشير على اندفاع تصاعدي أقوى نحو المناطق 72/1.2658، مع احتمال وصوله إلى المنطقة 1.2698، قبل أن يتم البحث عن منطقة ارتفاع منخفض. المطلوب الآن هو انعكاسه للامتداد إلى ما دون مناطق الدعم 1.2577/1.2600 وذلك ليضعف ضغط اتجاهه، ويتسبب في عودته لاختبار المنطقة المنخفضة 1.2525 ليوم الثلاثاء.

نقاط المقاومة:
1.2642، 1.2658، 1.2672، 1.2698.
نقاط الدعم:
1.2600، 1.2577، 1.2550، 1.2537.


الدولار الأمريكي / الين الياباني
09:00 (+3 توقيت غرينتش)
استرد الدولار اتجاهه التصاعدي 118.05/119.66، حيث سجل قمة يوم الثلاثاء، مشيراً إلى تجميد حركته التصاعدية. خطر اتجاهه تنازلياً قد يمتد نحو المنطقة 118.67، والتي هي استرداد بنسبة 61.8% للارتفاع 118.05/119.66. المطلوب الآن هو عودته إلى القمم الأقل انخفاضاً عند المناطق 44/119.36 وذلك لتأكيد عودة اختباره الاتجاه مرتفعاً نحو المناطق 119.88/120.00.

نقاط المقاومة:
119.16، 119.35، 119.44، 119.66.
نقاط الدعم:
118.55، 118.40، 118.15، 118.05.


الجنيه الإسترليني / الدولار الأمريكي
09:00 (+3 توقيت غرينتش)
وجد الجنيه الإسترليني نقطة داعمة لاتجاهه عند المنطقة المنخفضة 1.8674 ليوم الثلاثاء، قبل أن يسجل ارتفاعاً في اتجاهه، متحرك عكس اتجاهه التنازلي ليوم الجمعة الماضية من المنطقة 1.8756. ارتفاعه فوق المنطقة 1.8815، والتي هي استرداد بنسبة 76.4% للانخفاض 1.8859/1.8674، تؤكد تحركه عكس اتجاهه التنازلي بالكامل، بالرغم من احتمال انحداره لاحقاً. الأمر الوحيد الذي سيؤكد عودة اتجاهه تنازلياً من المنطقة 1.8859هو انحداره دون منطقة الانخفاض المرتفع 1.8745 والمنطقة 1.8720.

نقاط المقاومة:
1.8840، 1.8847، 1.8860، 1.8870.
نقاط الدعم:
1.8770، 1.8745، 1.8720، 1.8693.

التحليل الفني للنفط

اليوم الخميس 26-10-2006

يسجل النفط اندفاعاً قوياً نحو الأعلى، بعد أن ترك منطقة الانخفاض المرتفع المهمة 58.50 ليوم 30 تشرين الثاني (نوفمبر) لسنة 2005. ما يزال وضع اتجاهه الحالي مثير للقلق ما دام النفط يتحرك دون المناطق 75/62.23 التي سجلها يومي 17 و9 تشرين الأول (أكتوبر). انحداره دون المناطق 60.00/59.70 يضعف قوته للاستمرار باتجاهه تصاعدياً.

61.10

60.55

59.70

59.25

59.00

الدعم

61.75

61.90

62.23

62.75

63.20

المقاومة

الذهب (GOLD)

يسجل الذهب تحسناً واضحاً في خط اتجاهه، إذ ارتفع من المنطقة 573.10 يوم الثلاثاء، لكي يوفر بعض الراحة من ضغط اتجاهه التنازلي من المنطقة 602.20 ليوم 20 تشرين الأول (أكتوبر). ارتفاعه فوق المنطقة 584.70 سيجعله يستمر باتجاهه تصاعدياً، حيث سيفسح المجال أمامه للامتداد نحو المنطقة المرتفعة 592.50 ليوم الاثنين، متصدراً وصوله إلى المنطقة 599.50 في حال استمرار اتجاهه تصاعدياً. في حال انحداره دون المنطقة 579.60 فإن التساؤلات ستثار حول قدرة الذهب للاستمرار في اتجاهه التصاعدي، وبالتالي فإن المجال سيكون مفتوحاً أمام امتداده نحو المنطقة المنخفضة 573.10.

585.00

579.50

573.00

568.80

564.80

الدعم

599.50

602.20

603.70

606.50

611.00

المقاومة

تحديث....

التوصيات

الفضة (SILVER)

11.17

11.25

11.27

11.32

11.45

الدعم

12.12

12.02

11.98

11.91

11.82

المقاومة

DISCLAIMER
-----------------------

The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & U.S. indexes, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & U.S. indexes. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & U.S. indexes should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. I am not a Registered Investment Advisor or a Broker/Dealer.
Currencies, gold, silver & U.S. indexes presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.

[madro]

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