(رويترز)وقائع اجتماع مجلس الاحتياطي تبرر وقف رفع سعر الفائدة الامريكية

[المبتدىء الشرس]

افادت وقائع اجتماع مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحادي (البنك المركزي الامريكي) في شهر أغسطس اب الصادرة يوم الثلاثاء أن صناع القرار بالمجلس يعتقدون أنه على الرغم من القلق من التضخم فان وقف حملة رفع أسعار الفائدة سيمكنهم من جمع المزيد من المعلومات قبل تقرير أي رفع جديد للفائدة.

وافادت وقائع الاجتماع الذي عقد يوم الثامن من أغسطس "الابقاء على السياسة النقدية دون تغيير في هذا الاجتماع سيمكن اللجنة من جمع المزيد من المعلومات قبل تقرير ما اذا كانت هناك حاجة لتشديد السياسة النقدية لضمان تحقيق استقرار الاسعار بمرور الوقت."

وتابعت وقائع الاجتماع "التأثير الكامل للزيادات السابقة في أسعار الفائدة على النشاط وعلى الاسعار لم يحس على الارجح والتوقف يعتبر مناسبا للحد من مخاطر الافراط في تشديد السياسة النقدية."

وأوقف مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحاد حملة استمرت أكثر من عامين لرفع الفائدة في ذلك الاجتماع بابقائه على سعر الفائدة دون تغيير عند مستوى5.25 بالمئة لتقييم ما اذا كان تباطؤ الاقتصاد سيبقي على التضخم تحت السيطرة

[prices]

By Steven K. Beckner

Market News International - Although there was only one outright
dissent at the Federal Reserve's Aug. 8 Federal Open Market Committee
meeting, minutes of the meeting released Tuesday show that other FOMC
members also had a few qualms about leaving monetary policy unchanged.

What's more, the minutes reveal that it was not the FOMC's
intention to signal, through its rate announcement, that the decision to
leave the federal funds rate at 5.25% meant that the Fed was finished
tightening credit. It was the FOMC's desire to convey that "inflation
risks remained dominant."

Besides Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, who
voted against leaving the funds rate unchanged, the minutes suggest
there were other FOMC members who might also have been prepared to raise
the funds rate an 18th straight time.

The majority, hopeful that core inflation would recede from
elevated levels, favored a pause in the tightening process -- both to
gather more information before determining whether or not further
firming was needed and to avoid overdoing it. It was felt that a pause
carried little risk of aggravating inflation pressures.

There was a clear understanding, however, as suggested by the
minutes, that the FOMC would resume raising rates if it was deemed
necessary to combat inflation pressures.

An undisclosed number of officials seem to have been somewhat on
the fence about raising rates again.

Although, when it came time to vote, all but Lacker favored an
unchanged policy. The minutes report, "In view of the elevated readings
on costs and prices, many members thought that the decision to keep
policy unchanged at this meeting was a close call and noted that
additional firming could well be needed."

"But with economic growth having moderated some, most members
anticipated that inflation pressures quite possibly would ease gradually
over coming quarters and the current stance of policy could well prove
to be consistent with satisfactory economic performance," the minutes
add.

It was the majority view that "keeping policy unchanged at this
meeting would allow the Committee to accumulate more information before
judging whether additional firming would be necessary to foster the
attainment of price stability over time."

Further describing the sentiments expressed during the FOMC's
policy discussion, the minutes say "the full effect of previous
increases in interest rates on activity and prices probably had not yet
been felt, and a pause was viewed as appropriate to limit the risks of
tightening too much."

"Following seventeen consecutive policy firming actions, members
generally saw limited risk in deferring further policy tightening that
might prove necessary, as long as inflation expectations remained
contained," the minutes add.

Despite the lack of unanimity on the need for further rate hikes,
the minutes say, "All members agreed that the statement to be released
after the meeting should convey that inflation risks remained dominant
and that consequently keeping policy unchanged at this meeting did not
necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle."

The Fed staff seems to have been more confident about a future
lessening of inflation pressures than many on the committee.

The minutes reveal that the staff lowered its previous forecast for
economic growth in the second half of 2006 and 2007. "The marking down
of the outlook was largely attributable to the annual revision of the
national income and product accounts, which involved downward revisions
to actual GDP growth in prior years and prompted reductions in the
staff's estimate of potential output," the minutes state.

The staff felt that "the slowdown in the housing market, the
effects of higher energy prices on household purchasing power, the
waning impetus of household wealth effects on consumer spending, and the
effects of past policy tightening were expected to hold economic growth
below potential over the next six quarters."

Given that forecast, "core consumer price inflation was projected
(by the staff) to drop back somewhat later this year and next, mainly as
the effects of higher energy and import prices abated."

Members seem to have been a bit less pessimistic about growth and
somewhat less certain about a diminution of inflation when they
discussed the economic situation and outlook.

Despite a sharp deceleration in second quarter GDP growth, they
were fairly upbeat about future expansion. "Going forward, output was
expected to advance at a pace at or slightly below the economy's
potential rate of growth."

The minutes say "several participants noted that the annual
revision to the national income and product accounts suggested this
growth rate likely was lower than previously believed," but these same
revisions were also cited by some as a potential source of inflation.

Though hopeful that core inflation would retreat, members were not
completely sold on the idea, the minutes indicate. "Most
participants thought that, with energy prices possibly leveling out,
aggregate demand moderating, and long-term inflation expectations
contained, core PCE inflation likely would decline gradually from its
recent elevated level," they say, but add, "the upside risks to
inflation were significant."

The minutes say "all participants expressed concern about continued
elevated readings on core inflation and inflation risks going forward."
And it says "several participants took note of the revisions to
historical data that painted a more worrisome picture of cost trends;
measures of unit labor costs had been marked up, reflecting upward
revisions to labor compensation and downward revisions to labor
productivity."

It was noted that core PCE inflation had been running at or above a
2% annual rate for more than two years and had been accelerating over
the first half of 2006. And "many participants noted that the extent to
which the increase in core inflation so far this year reflected
transitory or persistent influences remained unclear."

"The recent pickup in price increases appeared to be broad-based,
and a number of business contacts reported greater ability to pass
through higher costs," the minutes add. There was also concern expressed
about the decline in the value of the dollar. This was seen as perhaps
leading to "a weakening of import competition in the form of increases
in the prices of tradable goods in the United States."

However, the majority view was that at least some of the price
pressures were likely to dissipate -- particularly shelter and energy
costs. Then too, "the anticipated moderation in aggregate demand implied
that pressures on resource utilization likely would not increase and
could abate to a degree going forward." And the majority took comfort
from a perception that "inflation expectations appeared to have remained
contained despite adverse news about prices."

"In light of these factors, most participants expressed the view
that core inflation was likely to decline gradually over the next
several quarters, although appreciable upside risks remained," the
minutes state.

Taking sharp exception was Lacker, who "dissented because he
believed that further tightening was needed to bring inflation down more
rapidly than would be the case if the policy rate were kept unchanged."

"The inflation outlook had deteriorated in the intermeeting period;
the recent surge in core inflation had persisted and appeared to be
broad-based, while the revision of the national income and product
accounts indicated a recent upswing in compensation and unit labor
costs," the minutes say in explaining Lacker's vote.

"Although real growth was likely to be somewhat lower in coming
quarters, in his view it was unlikely to moderate by enough to bring
core inflation down," the minutes continue. "He noted, moreover, that
real short-term interest rates had fallen in the intermeeting period and
were still low relative to rates typically associated with sustained
expansions."

After voting on rates, the FOMC discussed communication issues.
"Although considerable strides had been made in FOMC communications
over the past ten years or so, participants generally thought that
further advances were possible," according to the minutes.

"In that regard, consideration of how the Committee expressed both
its economic objectives and its assessments of expected progress toward
those objectives was likely to be particularly important," they say.
"Conveying the degree of uncertainty and conditionality about Committee
expectations of future developments was seen as a major challenge."

"It was recognized that communications should support appropriate
decisionmaking, including respect for the diversity of views that
contributed to good decisions," the minutes add.

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