سؤال ارجو الاجابة عليه بخصوص قرار الفائدة

[zezoocrazyman]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته

غدا قرار الفائدة الاوربى و من المتوقع ان يظل ثابت
السؤال بقى لو فضل ثابت ممكن ايه الى يحصل ؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟
يقوى اليورو و لا يضعفه ؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟

[ابــ آدم ــو]

هتتثبت اخوى بس انتظر شوف كلام الاخ تروشيه هيقول ايه
والله لو فضل عايش فى الغيبوبه وقال الاقتصاد حلو بس التضخم موجود فاحتمال نرفع قريب هيطلع اليورو
اما لو قال الواقع فاعتقد هينزل

[رانيا وجدي]

تقرير حول قرارات الفائدة غدا لليورو والباوند

ECB and BoE: Neither central bank will raise interest rates in May

ECB will continue carrying out its aggressive policy towards reducing inflation while the BoE still does not seem to be eager to raise interest rates anytime soon. All of the analysts who submitted their predictions about the upcoming meetings of both central banks agree in this respect.

Despite the fact that in comparison with other central banks ECB is considered to be "the most hawkish on inflation and it showed as much by being the first to raise rates since the financial crisis," according to Nick Nasad, the majority of polled experts think it will not raise interest rates in May. "The ECB isn't expected to raise the rates in the upcoming meeting. Jean-Claude-Trichet used the code words 'monitor closely' in the last meeting, which means a pause now," reminds Yohay Elam, an analyst with Forex Crunch. "The EUR/USD has no clear reasons to decline at this moment. The dollar will regain ground if the Fed’s statements become more hawkish," adds Adam Narczewski.

الملف المرفق 269469

The BoE on the other hand is behaving much more cautiously as far as rising interest rates is concerned, even though "recent BoE's Inflation Report implies that it's very likely that inflation will settle above the 2% target in the medium term," as Alberto Muñoz points out. Also the fact that GDP had finally shown growth in the first quarter of 2011 would suggest a move towards an interest rate hike, but as Adam Narczewski believes: "The economy is not recovering as quick as expected and higher interest right now, without the support of macro data, do not make sense."

<H3>Nick Nasad - Chief Market Analyst at FXTimes:

ECB:
"If we are talking about the main central banks – the Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ – then no doubt the ECB currently is the most hawkish on inflation and it showed as much by being the first to raise rates since the financial crisis. The Fed is not likely to raise rates this year, the Bank of Japan trails even the Fed, while the Bank of England is trying to nurse an uneven recovery. The ECB is set to raise interest rates another 50 basis points this year, to 1.75%. I think we can expect them do so in 3 month intervals, around July and October. However, conditions can change on the ground if inflation falls back or the sovereign debt crisis erupts as a result of a Greek debt restructuring that is done incorrectly.
The chances of a disorderly restructuring are so far being discounted, and the EUR/USD seems set to continue climbing as long as the Fed takes a slow approach to normalization and underlying inflation in the US remains tame. The Fed is just beginning to lay out its exit strategy, starting with today’s FOMC announcement. Unless the Fed ups its rhetoric on inflation, and turns hawkish, the conditions for the EUR/USD to rally to 1.50 on interest rate expectations are in place in the next 1-2 months."

BoE:
"The next Bank of England meeting is set for May 5th, and I do not see the MPC raising rates. While the 1st quarter UK GDP data was encouraging, the economy remains on uneven footing. The bank had expected a gain in GDP of 0.8% in the first quarter and for all intensive purposes, the report does put a final nail in the coffin of a rate hike next week. The catalysts for the elevated inflation figures are predominantly fed by higher energy and commodity prices (imports) and the pass through of higher taxes in the form of a higher VAT. Those 2 factors are not going to respond as easily to a rate hike and instead it will put pressure on households and business in the form of higher borrowing costs. The BoE likely needs more data to sift through before deciding whether to hike rates.
The Bank of England can’t push off higher interest rates for that much longer, though they would like to see a more sustainable path for the recovery. That should boost the GBP/USD in the medium term. However, with austerity measures coming down the pipe, there is a chance that the central bank awaits its next forecasts in August before deciding to move on rates, a preposition that would weaken the GBP against its other rivals that are set to raise rates this year (ECB, RBA, BOC)."
Ed Ponsi - President of FXEducator LLC:

ECB:
"A stable price environment is positive for growth. The ECB is definitely the most hawkish of the major central banks right now, and with good reason. Trichet correctly perceives the dangers of inflation and the expectations for future inflation. If companies are allowed to plan and operate without the specter of rampant inflation, at least one layer of uncertainty is removed."

BoE:
"The policies of the Bank of England, while technically positive for growth, create inflation. Uncertainty over future prices create a hazard for business, making it difficult to plan ahead. While BoE policy is designed to boost growth, the resulting inflation has the opposite of the desired effect. If inflation expectations are allowed to run wild, growth will suffer. This is the same conundrum currently faced by the Fed.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will not raise rates until July at the earliest. The MPC will soon lose its most hawkish member, Andrew Sentance, so the doves will remain firmly in control for the foreseeable future."
Kathy Lien - Director of Currency Research at GFT

"There is no question that the ECB will raise interest rates again this year, but a rate hike is not expected next week. With the global economy progressing at a slower pace and the strong currency helping to mitigate inflation pressures, the European Central Bank has the luxury of time and can wait another month or two before tightening monetary policy."
Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst with FXstreet.com:

ECB:
"Not sure if hawkish is the right term for ECB. The bank was created to deal with inflation and nothing else, so now that the euro zone is finally seeing an increase in CPI readings the ECB can justify its reason to exist. After recent 0.25bp rate increase, market is mostly disappointed of not getting an advance of further rate hikes: currently we are pricing in just another 0.75bp for this year, and unless they turn actually hawkish, and announce a continued rate hike, sovereign debt jitters, Greece default and spread differentials, will finally weight on the common currency.
I would expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged this May at 1.25%."

BoE:
"Market has been quite disappointed on recent BoE outcomes, as latest Minutes shown votes remain 6-0-3. That’s one of the main reasons Pound is unable to pick up momentum against major rivals and despite current dollar weakness. A surprise rate hike, will no doubts favor the UK currency, with GBP/USD accelerating higher and probably approaching to 1.70 price zone over the next couple of weeks. However, a no change stance, won’t be so hard to the downside for the pair, as is what most investors expect. Only chance Pound has now, comes from the small possibility of policy makers start talking about removing facilities from the market, quite unlikely for this May.
I would expect ECB to leave rates and QE unchanged at 0.50 and 200B."
Joseph Trevisani - Chief Market Analyst at FX Solutions,LLC:

ECB:
"The ECB is the most hawkish of the major CBs, US, Japan and UK but not the most hawkish of the major currencies, that is probably the RBA . It will hike at least one and probably twice more this year. The more the ECB hikes the stronger the Euro becomes. Only a sovereign default or failed auctions for Spain or Italy cold derail a higher euro, or I suppose a worldwide recession or a change in Fed policy."

BoE:
"I don't think the BoE will raise rates the next meeting. The economy is weak and the last inflation report was better than expected though still at 4.0%. The MPC will wait for more evidence. The sterling like the euro is stronger because of dollar weakness than it would be on its own competing against a normal dollar."
Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex:

ECB:
"With consumer prices well above the 2% comfort level, the European Central Bank has been very clear about their goals to keep inflation in check and to make sure that 'second-round effects do not materialize'. This is the kind of language that has been and could continue to keep the EUR well-bid ahead of the meeting. However, although the ECB is expected to raise rates another time or two this year, policy makers could decide to prudently maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.25% following last month’s rate hike. If such decision is coupled with a less hawkish ECB statement, a welcomed price correction of the euro’s gains could get underway."

BoE:
"Will they or will they not raise rates this time around? Each month we go through this drill and month after month the Bank of England has decided to sit on the sidelines. But things could be different at this meeting, especially if the recent U.K. GDP data has managed to reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that the economy’s return to growth in the first quarter of 2011 after contracting in Q4 2010 creates an appropriate environment to accommodate the long-awaited by the markets rate hike. Needles to say, an increase in the benchmark rate could serve as a catalyst for further GBP strengthening, while another month of 'sit and wait' decision by the Bank of England could trigger profit-taking of GBP long positions."
Curt Wehrley, Currency Coach and Quantitative Analyst with FX Bootcamp

ECB:
I would agree that the ECB is currently the most hawkish major central bank. The ECB adopted its inflation-fighting reputation from Germany's Bundesbank, and that reputation looks for now to remain intact. Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny recently stated that an expectation by investors' of further ECB rate hikes this year is "well founded." Italy central bank head Mario Draghi, considered by some to be slightly more hawkish than current ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, has received support from French president Sarkozy to replace Trichet in November. Draghi recently hinted he would support further ECB rate hikes. Concerned that the ECB will take pause due to concerns about the euro's exchange rate? Check the common currency's valuation against the US dollar when the ECB ordered a rate hike in July 2008.

BoE:
Minutes from the latest Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes suggest that five MPC members have cited low wage growth and fragile consumer confidence as reasons they have remained neutral on policy. Inflation expectations seem to have moderated for now, as a recent survey conducted by Citi and YouGov showed British public inflation expectations dropped to a seven month low in April. According to one researcher at GfK NOP, his firm's latest measure of UK consumer confidence -- derived from a survey conducted after the Chancellor's Budget -- has entered a "worrying area" below the -30 level. Over the past 37 years, a recession in the UK followed each of the two previous times -- in early 1990 and in mid-2008 -- that this GfK index breached -30. Those data suggest the central bank will choose to abstain from raising its bank rate at the next meeting. While continued pressure on the US dollar on the back of accommodative Fed policy could provide a net lift for GBP/USD, lower BOE rate hike prospects is a headwind to that pair's upside gains.
Adam Narczewski - Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB:

ECB:
"After the interest rate hike in April, in May the European Central Bank will take a break and leave interest rates unchanged. I expect the ECB to act in the third quarter, maybe even in July. After that, the end of the term of Trichet as president of the ECB will be approaching and the future monetary policy might depend on the vision of the new president. Nevertheless, the ECB will remain the most hawkish central bank due to high prices of oil and food which will keep the inflationary pressures. The EUR/USD has no clear reasons to decline at this moment. The dollar will regain ground if the Fed’s statements become more hawkish."

BoE:
"I do not see the Bank of England rising interest rates on the next meeting but the first interest hike in the third quarter is still real. Much will depend on inflation data. If it stays low like in March, the BoE will not change its monetary policy. Only if prices do go up, it will give a reason for an interest hike. The economy is not recovering as quick as expected and higher interest right now, without the support of macro data, do not make sense. The weakness of the USD might cause the GBP/USD to attack even 1.7000, a corrective movement is expected if the BoE’s statement will be very dovish."
Yohay Elam - Analyst Forex Crunch:

ECB:
"The ECB isn't expected to raise the rates in the upcoming meeting. Jean-Claude-Trichet used the code words "monitor closely" in the last meeting, which means a pause now. The focus will be, once again, on the press conference. A use of the words 'strong vigilance' will indicate a hike in June, while a repeat of the previous wording will hint another pause. A lot depends on the upcoming flash estimate for the headline CPI.
The ECB is the most hawkish central bank. They began the tightening cycle before Japan, Switzerland and the US. Britain has a much higher inflation rate (both headline and core) but the central bank in Britain looks also at the state of the economy" Trichet's policy seems to lean towards Germany.
Further rate hikes depend on the headline CPI in the upcoming months. One more hike is very likely. Two cannot be ruled out, but no more than that."

BoE:
"I don't see the BoE raising rates anytime soon. The most recent meeting minutes have shown that a hike in June or July will be very early. With an ease in inflation (4%) and the impact of austerity still not fully felt, the MPC is likely to leave the rates unchanged. This will probably weaken the pound marginally."
Alberto Mu&ntilde;oz - Forex Analyst at FXstreet.com:

ECB:
"ECB looks the most hawkish central bank compared to the Fed and BoE. Inflation has exceeded ECB's target, and Eurozone PPI has posted its biggest jump in almost two-and-a-half years in February, so we should expect additional rate hikes in the next months, though I wouldn't expect to finish year with rates above 2.00%. Anyway, if market participants are increasing their interest rates expectations, we should see EURUSD near 1.5000 in the next 2-3 months Forecast: ECB will leave rates unchanged in May, though Trichet could be more hawkish this time."

BoE:
"Though some analysts are pointing that scenario, I don't think BoE will raise interest rates in the next meeting though recent BoE's Inflation Report implies that it's very likely that inflation will settle above the 2% target in the medium term. But MPC remains divided, as the minutes of April meeting suggest that the 6-3 split in favour of keeping rates at 0.5% is unlikely to change during May. Forecast: BoE will leave rates unchanged in May."
Dr. S. Sivaraman - CEO and owner of i-knowindices.com:

ECB rate decision -05 May 11:45 GMT followed by ECB press conference 12;30 GMT:
"ECB may maintain the rate without any rise .The press conference may not give any hawkish feel for a rise during next month. As a result EURO is expected to make the following moves on the day.
Very quick rise during Japanese session followed by a drop soon after European session start. the drop might continue towards close of European session.US session may show lower level swings for the day."

BoE rate decision- 05 May 11:00 GMT:
"The market expectation is no change in the rate .But the statement may be used as trigger to derive a possible rise next month. As a result GBP is expected to make the following moves on that day.
Very quick rise during Japanese session followed by a drop soon after European session start.the drop might continue towards close of European session.US session may show lower level swings for the day."
Layalee Ramahi - Strategic Manager at ecPulse.com

ECB:
"The ECB is surely starting to be perceived as the most hawkish bank among the major central banks, for surely we can not forget the PBoC when we talk hawkish! The ECB has always been prudent and strict when it comes to monetary stability, and actually their steps are proving to be stable and well balance, the ECB has been blamed to be the last to take extensive easing when the crisis hit, and they proved everyone right, and now with the tightening the same story goes again! The problem is the fiscal imbalance which the ECB should not be the one to blame for or the one to shoulder the economy for. The euro nation is recovering and growth is on track even with austerity measures which are already on track and the deficit reduction strategy is working. We see more tightening ahead yet not just yet for the ECB as they give last month’s hike some time to take effect yet will not be very lenient with warnings from Trichet already about second-round effects. The euro is to be bolstered by the ECB tightening and help the ECB take slower steps as it counters inflation for now."

BoE:
"Investors are turning strongly bullish on sterling with the rising hawkish bets on the BoE, especially after the economy escaped recession with 0.5% growth which many where skeptic about. The bets are rather based on delayed feds rates rather than a sooner move by the BoE. The prevailing split among the MPC members does not seem to be on the way for a resolution with little data to signal other wise since the April meeting, when the majority saw growing downside pressures on growth. The BoE are to take their time and see if sterling’s rally will help keep some of the hawkish calls and rising commodity pressures at bay. I still see the BoE eventually caving for the pressures yet with the May Inflation Report just around the corner they waited long enough to take a hasty decision this meeting, so I see the bank holding rates in May and not moving before July at least."
César Leiceaga - Independent Analyst with FXstreet.com:

ECB:
"Up to date I do believe the ECB has been one of the most hawkish central banks. Mr. Trichet has expressed his concerns in past conferences on inflation. It happens to be that it’s their basic concern right now even though debt concerns across Europe and possible defaults such as Greece are in sight. I think further rate hikes at this moment after an early 0.25bp increase last month would be premature. There is no change in the pairs uptrend, I see a nearby target in 1.5000 as the market is yet to digest the recent rate hike even though technical indicators are warning a change in trend there is no evidence of it for now.
Forecast: Unchanged at 1.25%."

BoE:
"I do see some kind of hawkish talk from the BoE in the next meeting and maybe a near term rate hike of 0.25bps influenced by the ECB’s policy, but not for this next meeting. Investors have pared expectations for an increase in the BoE’s benchmark and many perceive the risks to growth are still to the downside as the last BoE minutes highlighted. The pair seems to have priced in all of these factors and the “risk on” theme persists with its uptrend intact as well. Proximate upside targets lay at 2009 peaks in 1.6875 and 1.7050.While the downside exposure would increase on a weekly close below 1.6080 area.
Forecast: Unchanged at 0.50%."
Adam Rosen - CEO and Co-Founder of 4xLounge

ECB:
"Despite fears of debtcontagion, the European economy seems to have contributed their fair share to theworld wide recovery. Case in point, the IFO (German Business Climate) recently
achieved levels we have not seen since the 1990’s. Therefore it is logical to come to the
conclusion that if growth, confidence, employment, and price pressures continue to rise
as they have as of late, the ECB will respond in-kind with the disposition for a higher
rate environment." </H3>

التقرير أعلاه يوضح اراء ابرز المحللين الماليين والفنيين حول قرار الفائدة الاوروبي والبريطاني اليوم ان شاء الله ونستعرض أبرز النقاط الرئيسية التي يتناولها التقرير التي تخص المركزي الاوروبي واليورو ,

- يعد المركزي الأوربي الاكثر تشددا تجاه التصدي للتضخم وقد برز ذلك بأنه كان صاحب اول مبادرة لرفع الفائدة منذ الأزمة العالمية ومتوقع ان يشهد مزيدا من الرفع هذا العام ل50 اضافية

- من المتوقع ان يواصل اليورو دولار قفزاته طالما يتبطئء الفيدرالي في التصدي للتضخم ومالم يغير الفيدرالي لهجته تجاه التضخم سيظل اليورو دولار الي ارتفاع

- لا شك ان المركزي الاوروبي سيرفع الفائدة مرة اخري هذا العام لكن لا يشترط ان نري ذلك هذا الاسبوع حيث ان الاوروبي لديه الوقت ويمكن ان ينتظر شهر او اثنين قبل تفعيل تقليل السياسة النقدية

- فاليري تتوقع الا يتم رفع الفائدة هذا الشهر وان المركزي الاوروبي بحاجه الي لهجة متشددة اكثر والاعلان عن مزيدا من الرفع المتتالي للفائدة لكي لا يصاب السوق بخيبة امل وتعود ازمة الديون واليونان للضغط

- جوزيف تريفياني من المتوقع ان يتم رفع الفائدة مرة او مرتين هذا العام وكلما رفعها المركزي كلما دعم ذلك اليورو اكثر

- ليان يوتوف من المتوقع ان يتم رفع الفائدة مرة او مرتين خلال هذا العام ولكن من الممكن ان يقرر صناع السياسة النقدية تأجيل الرفع هذه المرة وفي حال حدوث ذلك مع لهجة اقل تشددا فانه من المتوقع ان نري تصحيح لليورو

- كيرت ويرلي , يتفق مع احتمالية المزيد من الرفع هذا العام حيث ان ماريو دراجي رئيس المركزي الايطالي تلقي دعما من سركوزي ليحل محل تيرشيه في نوفمبر القادم ويعد ماريو من المؤيدين لمزيدا من الرفع هذا العام

- أدم نيرجزويسكي , بعد الرفع في ابريل اتوقع ان ياخذ المركزي الاوروبي استراحة في مايو علي ان يتحرك في الربع الثالث من العام مرة اخري , ثم بعد ذلك تقترب نهاية ترشيه وتتوقف القرارات القادمة علي بديله الجديد , اليورو دولار ليس لديه اي مبرر حالي للهبوط ومن المتوقع ان يكتسب الدولرا ارض صلبة في حال بدا الفيدرالي في التصرف بحزم اكثر تجاه التضخم

- يوهاي الام ليس من المتوقع ان يرفع المركزي الفائدة هذه المرة فقد استخدم تريشه الكود الذي يعني وقفة حالية للرفع , ومن جديد تتحول الانظار الي الاجتماع المصاحب للقرار واستخدام كلمة (( يقظة قوية )) يعني رفع جديد في يونيو بينما تكرار الأكواد السابقة سيعني مزيدا من التوقف عن الرفع

هذه ابرز النقاط بالتصريحات وليست جميعها ولمزيدا من التفاصيل مرفق بالاقتباس اعلاه التقرير كامل