مراجعة ونقاش لتوصيات أحد محللي أسواق المال

[محمدفراج]

- الشراء من المستويات الحالية.. والوقف تحت 1.2120 أو 1.2135 والهدف 1.2270



اتوقع يالوافي


ان اليورو ماقدر يكسر المقاومة اللي قالها ( هو ) 1.2150

يعني الستوب 1.2140 مثل ماتفضل


ومادام انه ارتد من النقطه 1.2150 او فوقها قليلا


فهل سوف يعاود الصعود على حسب كلام الرجال الى 1.2270



تحياتي وارجو الشرح

[alwafi]

- الشراء من المستويات الحالية.. والوقف تحت 1.2120 أو 1.2135 والهدف 1.2270



اتوقع يالوافي


ان اليورو ماقدر يكسر المقاومة اللي قالها ( هو ) 1.2150

يعني الستوب 1.2140 مثل ماتفضل


ومادام انه ارتد من النقطه 1.2150 او فوقها قليلا


فهل سوف يعاود الصعود على حسب كلام الرجال الى 1.2270



تحياتي وارجو الشرح

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هلا أخوي محمد..
هو لم يجزم بأن هناك دعم عند 1.2150 ولا حتى 1.2120
ولكنه قال عند كسر 1.2140 فإن احتمال النزول يصبح كبيرا ربما لمستويات 1.2050 أما إن ظل متماسكا فوقها فربما يواصل لمستويات 1.2270

واليوم كما ترى ضعف لليورو وقوة للدولار بسبب قرار البنك الفدرالي برفع سعر الفائدة على الدولار.. وأظن أن اليورو سيكسر الدعم عند 1.2150 وربما حتى 1.2120 ويتبقى لديه الدعم النفسي عند 1.2100

تقبل تحياتي،.،

[alwafi]

EUR/USD still susceptible to a pull back to 1.2050 - 1.2030; USD/CHF may yet rise to 1.2830 - 1.2850

.

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Euro/US Dollar
(1.2157) - 07:52 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 EUR/USD

the currency pair remains below the crucial 1.2270 swing level -- a test of which the single currency may be still set to do. Until then, we have to pay attention to one of the possibilities we were tracking, which is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, and that is why we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode without tracing out the chances of a downtick happening. This view also hews close to the scenario that the Fed will bump up rates Tuesday -- which may well cause the single currency to fall to the mid- to low 1.2000s. The best way to handle this situation is to put in markers to guide us in the decision-making process. Any rally above 1.2270 makes it unlikely that a final downleg to 1.2050 - 1.2020 will happen. On the other hand, any sell-off which takes out 1.2140 highly suggests that such a move to 1.2050 - 1.2020 will likely take place.

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The slightly longer-term outlook is different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.2181 and 1.2231. Keep stop-loss at 1.2110. Keep profit target at 1.2500.

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British Pound/US Dollar
(1.7885) - 07:53 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 GBP/USD -

the currency pair is pulling back somewhat after a recovery initiated after U.K. retail sales rose 0.6%(m/m) in August, and bested expectations for a 0.4% fall. The technical conditions remain the same -- a break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. We may yet see a follow-through to 1.8030, but a sell-off after Tuesday's FOMC meeting has to be factored in place.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(109.72) - 07:54 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 USD/JPY -

a small rally back to 110.30 was followed by a volatile flip-flop in price. This is the general expectation if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier has not been completed at the most recent sojourn to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern is complete, or soon to be completed anyway, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2716) - 07:53 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 USD/CHF -

there is still a chance that the rally may go further towards 1.2800 - 1.2850 resistance area, post the FOMC meeting Tuesday. The downtrend resumes thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 1.2607 and 1.2668. Keep stop-loss at 1.2810. Keep profit target at 1.2200.

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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2981) - 07:55 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 USD/CAD --

the currency pair rose after Canadian inflation slowed more than expected in August to 1.9 percent from a year ago, then fell. The currency pair is back at 1.2996, and the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head for 1.2860. And from there, it should test the 1.2685 trough.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6984) - 07:54 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 AUD/USD -

support may firm at .6960, and assume further upmove to .7040, but this may be followed by another sell-off to .6950. The outlook becomes significantly more positive once .7050 resistance is taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place thereafter.

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Recommendations:
Bought AUD at 0.6909, 0.6962 and 0.6990. Keep stop-loss at 0.6930. Keep profit target at 0.7225.

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NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6600) - 07:53 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 NZD/USD -

the currency prepares for a test of the .6640 top. The currency however stands a good chance of doing another correction to .6560. but should accelerate higher thereafter as a consquence of a break through the high. The wide U.S. current account/trade gap, and the outlook of further RBNZ tightening, should continue to underpin the rally as the dollar runs out of steam. The uptrend should be reaffirmed shortly -- the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. If you have to pick a medium-term bet, long Kiwi should be a good candidate from both technical and fundamental perspective.

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Recommendations:
Bought NZD at 0.6464 to 0.6611 (4 observations). Keep stop-loss at 0.6550. Keep profit target at 0.7000.

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Euro/Japanese Yen
(133.40) - 07:56 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 EUR/JPY -

the cross has been to 134.50, but may correct to 133.40. However, the cross should continue to rally fromt here -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 133.91 and 134.02. Keep stop-loss at 132.80. Keep profit target at 138.00.

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Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5461) - 07:56 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 EUR/CHF -

no change in view -- the cross has been to 1.5483, and should continue the upwards course. The cross should then push through to1.5550 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.5416. Move stop-loss from 1.5390 to 1.5430. Keep profit target at 1.5600.

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Euro/British Pound
(0.6794) - 07:57 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 EUR/GBP -

no change in view -- the cross found support at .6780, but allow for further decline to .6770 - .6760. Nonetheless, the uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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British Pound/Japanese Yen
(196.26) - 07:58 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 GBP/JPY -

the uptrend is back on track, may correct to 196.50 however, and should make a go at 198.65 top, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.

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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 196.66 and 196.75. Keep stop-loss at 195.10. Keep profit target at 205.00.

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British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2748) - 07:58 GMT, Sep 20, 2004 GBP/CHF -

the cross still consolidates after it broke through the 2.2700 resistance; we might see the rally extending further from here (2.2765). Resistance effectively reside at just below 2.2800, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside

[alwafi]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
أسعد الله أوقاتكم بكل خير..
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اليوم هو بداية الأسبوع الثاني لمتابعتنا لتحليلات وتوصيات (بالان)..

هو لازال متخوفا من نزول اليورو لمستويات 1.2050/1.2030 وكذلك الدولار قد يرتفع لمستويات 1.2830/1.2850

كذلك.. فهو لم يزل مصرا.. على اعتبار النقطة 1.2140 بالنسبة لليورو نقطة مهمة.. وفي حال كسرها نزولا.. فإن نظرية النزول إلى 1.2050 ستصبح أكثر وضوحا حينها..!!

عزى ذلك إلى قرار البنك الفيدرالي الأمريكي برفع سعر الفائدة بمقدار ربع نقطة غدا الثلاثاء.. مما قد سيؤدي باليورو إلى النزول إلى منتصف الـ 1.2000
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سأعود لكم بنتائج توصياته حتى الآن.. ومزيد من تسليط الضوء على بعض العملات والتوصيات الأخرى.. إن شاء الله تعالى..


تحياتي للجميع،.،

[alwafi]

USD/CAD may rally back to 1.3040 post Fed rate hike (if any); but look for decline to 1.2860 thereafter

Euro/US Dollar
(1.2176) - 06:39 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

EUR/USD - the currency pair recovered somewhat after seeing chart support at 1.2125. It may yet rise towards 1.2220, but this is inconsequential in the face of the FOMC meeting set today. Nonetheless, a small uptick to test the 1.2270 swing level does not seem likely from here (1.2176) in the light of an almost certain bumping up of rates by another 25 basis points. The response to a rate hike may be mild however, as it has been telegraphed for several weeks now. This development really forces us to pay attention to one of the possibilities we were tracking, which is a large, multi-month triangle which commenced in June. A final downmove to 1.2050 area is needed to complete the pattern, so until such time that this particular route is discredited, we hesitate to jump into a bullish mode without giving it a chance to play out. A Fed bump up of rates 25 basis points today may well cause the single currency to fall to the mid- to low 1.2000s. it may find demand at those lower levels however.

The slightly longer-term outlook is different however. We favor the outlook which eventually leads to a break of 1.2310, at which point the bias to the upside becomes virtually certain. And on a larger overview, we still maintain that there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end.

There is no logic to holding a position ahead of the Fed decision today. Square long positions and re-position after the FOMC meeting is over.

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Recommendations:
Close long EUR position (from 1.2181 and 1.2231) at current level (1.2176).

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British Pound/US Dollar
(1.7843) - 06:44 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

GBP/USD - the currency pair recovers somewhat after support was found at 1.7815. However, it may be limited to 1.7900 - 1.7910. Tuesday's FOMC meeting has to be factored in place. A 25 basis point hike by the Fed may cause further decline to 1.7720. The technical conditions remain the same. On the positive side, a break of 1.8030 top triggers a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals keep getting in the way however. U.K. house prices probably fell for the first time in more than a year in August, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today, adding to evidence that five interest rate increases since November are cooling the housing market. And therefore interest rates may not need to rise much further -- which of course weakens the GBP in the FX markets.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(110.10) - 06:44 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

USD/JPY - a volatile flip-flop in price continues. This is the general expectation if the triangle pattern we spoke about earlier is indeed operative, which limits the upmove to 110.40. We will take a chance that the pattern will soon be completed, and so we expect the currency pair to break through the 109.40 support thereafter, and initiate a new series of declines to the downside, which first targets the downside base at 108.75, then breaches support to bring about 107.00 quickly.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2728) - 06:44 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

USD/CHF - there may be a small downtick to 1.2680 area, but the rally may indeed be going further towards 1.2800 - 1.2850 resistance area, post the FOMC meeting Tuesday. The downtrend resumes thereafter, and may be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.

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Recommendations:
Close short USD position (from 1.2607 and 1.2668) at current level (1.2728).

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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2952) - 06:44 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

USD/CAD -- The currency pair fell to 1.2925, and consolidates somewhat, but the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head further towards 1.2860. And from there, it should test the 1.2685 trough.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6990) - 06:45 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

AUD/USD - support may firm at .6950 - 1.6940 after the Fed hike, but assume further upmove to .7040 thereafter. The outlook becomes significantly more positive once .7050 resistance is taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place thereafter.

We will keep this position going into the FOMC meeting.

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Recommendations:
Bought AUD at 0.6909, 0.6962 and 0.6990. Keep stop-loss at 0.6930. Keep profit target at 0.7225.

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NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6600) - 06:47 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

NZD/USD - the currency prepares for the Fed rate hike -- support should firm up at .6550. The currency however should accelerate higher thereafter. The wide U.S. current account/trade gap, and the outlook of further RBNZ tightening, should continue to underpin the rally as the dollar runs out of steam. The uptrend should be reaffirmed shortly -- the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. If you have to pick a medium-term bet, long Kiwi should be a good candidate from both technical and fundamental perspective.

. We will keep this position going into the FOMC meeting

.

Recommendations:
Bought NZD at 0.6464 to 0.6611 (4 observations). Keep stop-loss at 0.6550. Keep profit target at 0.7000.

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Euro/Japanese Yen
(134.10) - 06:48 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

EUR/JPY - the cross did find support at 133.20. The cross should continue to rally from here (134.03) -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 133.91 and 134.02. Keep stop-loss at 132.80. Keep profit target at 138.00.

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Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5496) - 06:49 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

EUR/CHF - the cross broke above 1.5483 resistance, and has been to 1.5500, which should be taken out momentarily. The cross should continue the upwards course and push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps to 1.5600.

We will keep this position goimg into the FOMC meeting.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.5416. Keep stop-loss at 1.5430. Keep profit target at 1.5600.

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Euro/British Pound
(0.6825) - 06:50 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

EUR/GBP - the cross may have indeed found lasting support at .6780 -- further decline to .6770 - .6760 may not happen. The uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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British Pound/Japanese Yen
(196.51) - 06:52 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

GBP/JPY - the uptrend did correct , found support near 195.75. It should make a go at 198.65 top thereafter, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.

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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 196.66 and 196.75. Keep stop-loss at 195.10. Keep profit target at 205.00.

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British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2699) - 06:52 GMT, Sep 21, 2004

GBP/CHF - the cross consolidates after it broke through the 2.2700 resistance, but may be set for a new breakout once support at 2.2700 is confirmed. Resistance effectively reside at just below 2.2800, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

[alwafi]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته

قد ذكرت في بداية حديثي عن توصيات هذا الرجل أن هناك فرص ممتازة لمن أراد الدخول معه.. ويكون ذلك بالانتظار حتى يقترب السعر عند نقطة الوقف في توصيته.. ومن ثم الدخول بها.. ويكون الوقف بسيطا.. ولا يكاد يذكر..

وكمثال قريب:
ومن واقع توصياته منذ الأسبوع الفائت..

يورو-دولار
قد اقترب يوم أمس كثيرا من نقطة الوقف التي ذكرها في توصيته.. عند 1.2110 فمن دخل بالتوصية في ذلك الوقت 1.2135 فقد حقق الآن حوالي 140 نقطة.! :omg_smile

دولار-فرنك
وصل الهاي إلى 1.2770 وكان الوقف لدى (بالان) عند 1.2810
فمن دخل شورت فقد حقق اليوم حوالي 180 نقطة.! :sad:

باوند-ين
فقد وصل السعر إلى 195.80
ومن دخل بالتوصية لونق فقد حقق حوالي 170 نقطة.!
<<< عاد هذا صدناه بـ 120 نقطة ولله الحمد.! :thumbs_up

وجميع الأزواج تقريبا.. كلها اقتربت جدا من وقف الخسارة .. وكانت فرصة للدخول ممتازة جدا.!
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عموما..
هو أقفل عقدي اليورو-دولار.. والدولار-فرنك .. تخوفا من قرار الفيدرالي اليوم.. وكانت النتائج كالتالي:

1- عقد اليورو-دولار بـ -30 نقطة ..!! <<< لو تركه لحقق الآن +100 نقطة.!
2- عقد الدولار-فرنك بـ -91 نقطة..!! <<< لو تركه لحقق الآن +64 نقطة.!
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تحياتي للجميع،.،

[alwafi]

USD/CAD fell below established 1.2853 support, heads for the 1.2685 major trough

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Euro/US Dollar
(1.2242) - 13:53 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

EUR/USD - the currency pair did correct downwards, but went lower than the 1.2250 target; it has been to as low as 1.2230. We will set the swing level at 1.2225, breach of which will likely derail the short-term uptrend, and may cause another visit to the low 1.2100s. So barring a breac of 1.2225, the single currency should resume the uptrend for a probe of 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook still looks good -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2110. Keep profit target at 1.2500.

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British Pound/US Dollar
(1.7914) - 13:54 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

GBP/USD - the currency fellt o as low as 1.1775 -- if no support appears at 1.7870, the currency may pull backl towards the 1,7800 - 1.77650 support area. Nonetheless, Cable is still due a test of the 1.8030 top at some point. A break of 1.8030 top should trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however. A report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market, which has further undermined rate hike expectations and continue to hobble the pound going forward.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(110.50) - 13:54 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

USD/JPY - the currency pair soared, which indeed caused a breakout, but not on the direction that we prefer. The rally will probably proceed to 110.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 110.12. Keep stop-loss at 111.05. Keep profit target at 107.00.
Sell USD at 110.12 (stop entry). Stop-loss: 111.05. Profit target: 107.00.

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US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2635) - 13:54 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

USD/CHF - a larger correction is what we got, but it went much higher than our 1.2600 target. We expect the uptick to end at 1.2665 area -- the sell-off will likely resume thereafter, and may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 1.2573. Keep stop-loss at 1.2675. Keep profit target at 1.2200.
Sell USD at 1.2573 (stop entry). Stop-loss: 1.2675. Profit target: 1.2200.

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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2840) - 13:54 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

USD/CAD -- the currency fell further to 1.2828, and consolidates somewhat, but the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head further towards the 1.2685 trough.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.7050) - 13:55 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

AUD/USD - the currency pair has been to .7080, pulled back merely to .7035, and should resume the uptrend shortly. The outlook has become significantly more positive after.7050 resistance was taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place further out.

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Recommendations:
Bought AUD at 0.6909, 0.6962 and 0.6990. Move stop-loss from 0.6950 to 0.6990. Keep profit target at 0.7225.

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NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6615) - 13:55 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

NZD/USD - the currency found resistance at .6650 then pulled back to .6610 -- support should be at .6600. The uptrend should resume from there. and the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.

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Recommendations:
Bought NZD at 0.6464 to 0.6611 (4 observations). Move stop-loss from 0.6550 to 0.6590. Keep profit target at 0.7000.

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Euro/Japanese Yen
(135.32) - 13:55 GMT, Sep 22, 2004 E

UR/JPY - no change in view -- the cross soared to as high as 135.40 and consolidates in a narrow range -- support should be firm above 135.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 137.00 - 138.00 major resistance.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 133.91 and 134.02. Move stop-loss from 132.80 to 134.80. Keep profit target at 138.00.

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Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5470) - 13:55 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

EUR/CHF - no change in view -- the cross has likely found support at 1.5435, and should continue to rise towards the 1.5510 top. The cross should continue to push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.5416. Keep stop-loss at 1.5430. Keep profit target at 1.5600.

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Euro/British Pound
(0.6832) - 13:55 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

EUR/GBP - the cross lost the support at .6870. but looks like a base forms at ,6835 area. The uptrend resumes thereafter and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 0.6859. Keep stop-loss at 0.6810. Keep profit target at 0.7000.
Buy EUR at 0.6859 (stop entry). Stop-loss: 0.6810. Profit target: 0.7000.

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British Pound/Japanese Yen
(197.98) - 13:56 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

GBP/JPY - no change in view -- the uptrend found new minor support at 197.00. It should make a go at 198.65 top from here, then make a beeline for the 205.00 target.

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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 196.66 and 196.75. Keep stop-loss at 195.10. Keep profit target at 205.00.

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British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2635) - 13:56 GMT, Sep 22, 2004

GBP/CHF - no change in view -- the cross found a new base at 2.2520. The rally should continue -- make a new probe of 2.2780 top, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.

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.Recommendations:
Stand aside.

[alwafi]

EUR/USD support at 1.2225 survives, uptrend should resume, looking for 1.2500; USD/CHF falls further, may have 1.2200 as target

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Euro/US Dollar
(1.2272) - 05:12 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

EUR/USD - the swing level at 1.2225 survived and it seems like the short-term uptrend survived the test. Further upmove beyond 1.2300 reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook still looks good -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we repeat -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2110. Keep profit target at 1.2500.

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British Pound/US Dollar
(1.7944) - 05:12 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

GBP/USD - the currency fell to as low as 1.7875 -- found support thereafter. Cable is still due a test of the 1.8030 top at some point. A break of 1.8030 top should trigger a new series of advances -- there is no barrier between 1.8030 and 1.8500. Fundamentals are still getting in the way however. A report by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors gave the latest indications of a moderating housing market, which has further undermined rate hike expectations and continue to hobble the pound going forward.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(110.77) - 05:12 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to rally and will probably proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 110.12. Move stop-loss from 111.05 to 111.55. Keep profit target at 107.00.

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US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2589) - 05:14 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

USD/CHF - the uptick ended at 1.2655 and the downtrend may have resumed. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 1.2573. Keep stop-loss at 1.2675. Keep profit target at 1.2200.

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S Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2838) - 05:07 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

USD/CAD -- the currency fell further -- it has been to 1.2814 -- and consolidates somewhat, but the momentum of the descent suggests that it might head further towards the 1.2685 trough.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.7072) - 05:15 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

AUD/USD - no change in view -- the currency pair has been to .7080, pulled back merely to .7035, and should resume the uptrend shortly. The outlook has become significantly more positive after.7050 resistance was taken out. A rally towards .7100 - .7130 is still expected to take place further out.

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Recommendations:
Bought AUD at 0.6909, 0.6962 and 0.6990. Keep stop-loss at 0.6990. Keep profit target at 0.7225.

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NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6638) - 05:12 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

NZD/USD - the currency found support at .6606. The uptrend should resume from here (.6636). and the Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.

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Recommendations:
Bought NZD at 0.6464 to 0.6611 (4 observations). Keep stop-loss at 0.6590. Keep profit target at 0.7000.

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Euro/Japanese Yen
(135.96) - 05:17 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

EUR/JPY - the cross soared to as high as 136.00 and its open water to 137.00 - 138.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 138.00 major resistance.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 133.91 and 134.02. Keep stop-loss at 134.80. Keep profit target at 138.00.

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Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5452) - 05:17 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

EUR/CHF - the cross has likely found support at 1.5435, and may be tested again -- but for now we still see a continued rise towards the 1.5510 top. The cross should continue to push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.5416. Keep stop-loss at 1.5430. Keep profit target at 1.5600.

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Euro/British Pound
(0.6837) - 05:17 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

EUR/GBP - the cross did form a base at .6825. The uptrend resumes from here (.6840) and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.

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Rcommendations:
Bought EUR at 0.6859. Keep stop-loss at 0.6810. Keep profit target at 0.7000.

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British Pound/Japanese Yen
(198.79) - 05:18 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

GBP/JPY - the uptrend found new minor support at 198.10 and has been to 199.00. It should make a beeline for the 205.00 target.

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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 196.66 and 196.75. Keep stop-loss at 195.10. Keep profit target at 205.00.

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British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2592) - 05:18 GMT, Sep 23, 2004

GBP/CHF - no change in view -- the cross found a new base at 2.2520. The rally should continue -- make a new probe of 2.2780 top, and if taken out, we reinstate a 2.3000 target.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

[MarGin]

ممتاز جدا يالوافي

عطاء منقطع النظير فاستمر على بركة الله

وفقنا الله وياك يالغالي

[alwafi]

ممتاز جدا يالوافي

عطاء منقطع النظير فاستمر على بركة الله

وفقنا الله وياك يالغالي

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أخي الحبيب مارجن..
شكرا على تواصلك الرائع.. وتشجيعك.. واستحسانك للفكرة..

بوركت..

تقبل تحياتي،.،

[alwafi]

GBP/USD improves technically, but may dip to 1.8000 before heading higher; EUR/USD may yet decline to 1.2230 - 1.2220

.

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Euro/US Dollar
(1.2273) - 05:40 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

EUR/USD - the slide in treasury bond prices may extend further, and so the euro may gave up the gains made during the bounce from Friday's 1.2242 low. It might yet fall further towards 1.2230 - 1.2230. Nonetheless, we expect a new recovery thereafter, and the upmove may go beyond 1.2360, which effectively reinstates the rally towards 1.2500. The slightly longer-term positive outlook remains in effect still -- the rally should eventually make it to 1.2500. But we re-emphasize the longer-term view -- there is no real reason for bulls to celebrate until 1.2530 hypothetical resistance is taken out. This level is shaping up to be the major resistance in the current investment cycle. Take out 1,2530 top in turn, and you get a run-up to the 1.2925 high before year-end. Failure to do so consigns the currency pair to a long sideways sojourn at 1.2500 - 1.2000 range.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2190. Keep profit target at 1.2500.

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British Pound/US Dollar
(1.8056) - 05:40 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

GBP/USD - Cable pushed higher further in the back of news that U.K. mortgage lending probably grew in August, albeit at the slowest pace since May 2003. Support did appear at slightly above 1.8000, and has been higher since then. Nonetheless, allow for another go at 1.8000 - 1.7980 later in the trading day. Technicals are positive again, fundamentals have remained fairly positive or at worst neutral -- the uptrend remains north-bound. The recent breach of the 1.8050 top is a big technical plus, and a break of 1.8090 may trigger a new series of advances. As we said earlier, there is no big barrier between 1.8050 and 1.8500.

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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 1.8007. Move stop-loss from 1.7780 to 1.7925. Keep profit target at 1.8370.

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US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(110.66) - 05:42 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

USD/JPY - the currency pair continues to consolidate sideways -- no change in view. But it may yet proceed to 111.50 later in the week. Our downside projections have to be abandoned temporarily until we get a handle on this new uptrend.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 110.12. Keep stop-loss at 111.55. Keep profit target at 107.00.

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US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2612) - 05:43 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

USD/CHF - no change in view -- the currency will probably rise further to 1.2660 - 1.2680 later in the day to complete the countertrend rally. The longer-term negative view kicks in thereafter -- the downtrend should resume. The currency pair may still be bound for 1.2380 next. Expect further declines to 1.2200 further out.

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Recommendations:
Sold USD at 1.2573. Keep stop-loss at 1.2710. Keep profit target at 1.2200.

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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2765) - 05:39 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

USD/CAD -- the sell-off has indeed resumed with a vengeance, but found temporary support at 1.2724. Momentum projections suggests that it might head towards the 1.2685 trough at least -- we are now extending the downside target area towards 1.2500.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.7103) - 05:44 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

AUD/USD - the currency pair did pull back to .7120 -- it may yet extend to .7100. But the rally should resume thereafter. A rally towards .7300 - .7400 is probably now on track further out. The Aussie continues to benefit from its high-yield status and should lead the charge against the Dollar, and will alternate with the Kiwi for market leadership in the next few weeks.

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Recommendations:
Bought AUD at 0.6909, 0.6962 and 0.6990. Move stop-loss from 0.7070 to 0.7050. Keep profit target at 0.7225.

.

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NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6656) - 05:41 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

NZD/USD - the Kiwi consolidates from .6691 top and may pullback further to .6650 -- no change in view. The Kiwi should eventually make a move towards the .6750 top, then extend gains towards the .7100 high for the year. Long Kiwi remains the best candidate for in the medium-term, from both technical and fundamental perspective.

.

Recommendations:
Bought NZD at 0.6464 to 0.6611 (4 observations). Move stop-loss from 0.6630 to 0.6610. Keep profit target at 0.7000.

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Euro/Japanese Yen
(135.83) - 05:45 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

EUR/JPY - the cross has been to 136.50 and may yet correct back to 135.40 - 135.20. But the uptrend is still looking good -- its open waters until 137.00 - 138.00. The cross should continue to rally -- the next major focus being the 138.00 major resistance.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 133.91 and 134.02. Move stop-loss from 135.10 to 135.00. Keep profit target at 138.00.

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Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5486) - 05:45 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

EUR/CHF - the cross firmed up at 1.5460 and trades higher -- we still see a continued rise towards the 1.5510 top from here. The cross should then push through to 1.5550 and higher -- perhaps even to 1.5600.

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Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.5416. Move stop-loss from 1.5430 to 1.5450. Keep profit target at 1.5600.

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Euro/British Pound
(0.6797) - 05:44 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

EUR/GBP - support at .6800 did not materialize either, and so we prepare for further declines to .6770 later in the week. The uptrend may resume from there and should eventually push through .6856, which may trigger a rally to .7000.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

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British Pound/Japanese Yen
(199.76) - 05:47 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

GBP/JPY - the uptrend took out 200.00 on Friday and currently consolidates sideways. The cross should eventually rise, and make a beeline for the 205.00 target.

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Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 196.66 and 196.75. Keep stop-loss at 198.70. Keep profit target at 205.00.

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British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2780) - 05:48 GMT, Sep 27, 2004

GBP/CHF - the cross found a new support at 2.2620 and soared to 2.2800, which conveniently took out the 2.2780 top -- we have reinstated the 2.3000 target. If 2.3000 is taken out -- and we believe there is a good chance that the cross will eventually rise beyond it -- the the next target may be 2.3400.

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Recommendations:
Stand aside.

[alwafi]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
هذا هو الأسبوع الثالث من بدء نشر هذه التحليلات والتوصيات للمحلل (بالان)..

وأجد نفسي مقصرا بالفعل في اللحاق بما يطرحه من توصيات .. ونقاط مهمة جدا يذكرها خلال تحليله لمسار العملات.. والله المستعان..
فأرجو منكم السموحة..

عموما..
خلال الأسبوعين الفائتين .. ومن خلال الطريقة التي حدثتكم بها .. وهي الدخول بالتوصية عند اقتراب السعر وملامسته لوقف الخسارة الذي ذكره في توصياته..

فمن اتبع هذه الفرص فقط.. فقد حقق أكثر من 1100 نقطة بكل سهولة.! :omg_smile
نعم أكثر من 1100 نقطة بدون أدنى تعب ولا تخطيط ولا دراسة ولا غيره.!
وليس عليه سوى انتظار السعر ليصل بالقرب من وقف الخسارة المذكور بالتوصية.. ثم الدخول .. ويكون وقف الخسارة قريب جدا.. ولا يكاد يذكر مقارنة بالهدف.!
<<< وهذي عاد نطلق عليها: (الطريقة الوافيّة في اغتنام الفرص البالانية).! :teeth_smi :shades_sm
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ودعونا ننظر مثلا لبعض الأزواج خلال الأسبوع الفائت ومقارنتها بهذه الطريقة..

1- اليورو-دولار.. كان لديه توصية لونق بتاريخ: 15/09/2004 بوقف عند 1.2120 ووصل اللو إلى 1.2130 (10 نقاط كوقف خسارة).. ثم ارتد من هناك إلى 1.2330 (200) نقطة.!

2- توصية للباوند-دولار في نفس اليوم لونق.. والوقف عند 1.7800 ووصل اللو إلى 1.7825 (25 نقطة كوقف خسارة).. ثم ارتد إلى 1.8000 (175) نقطة.!

3- توصية للدولار-فرنك في نفس اليوم شورت.. والوقف عند 1.2750 ووصل الهاي إلى 1.2740 (10 نقاط كوقف خسارة).. ثم ارتد إلى 1.2530 (210) نقاط.!

4- توصية للباوند-ين في نفس اليوم لونق.. والوقف عند 195.10 ووصل اللو إلى 195.70 (60 نقطة كوقف خسارة).. ثم ارتد إلى 200 الأسبوع الفائت.. والآن 200.70 (500) نقطة.! :cry_smile

هذه طبعا مجرد أمثلة لما ذكرته في عدة مداخلات.. بكيفية اغتنام الفرص مع توصيات هذا الرجل.. وبكل يسر وسهولة.. وبخسارة لا تكاد تذكر.! وكان هناك كذلك فرص في اليورو-ين .. والدولار-ين.. والأسترالي.. وجميع التوصيات تقريبا..
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وهاهو التاريخ يعيد نفسه.. والأسعار بدأت تقترب من جديد من الوقف المذكور في نصف التوصيات (الحالية).. تقريبا.! :thumbs_up

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بالنسبة للتوصيات القائمة الآن.. فهي محققة حوالي +500 نقطة حتى الآن.!

سأعود إن شاء الله تعالى بمزيد من الشرح لبعض الفرص الموجودة..

تحياتي للجميع،.،

[alwafi]

ما شاء الله.. ما شاء الله..

مشاركات رائعة.. وجهود مميزة.. بارك الله فيكم جميعا..
<<< سأعود لمداخلاتكم إن شاء الله تعالى..
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كما سبق وأن تحدثت في بداية إنزال التوصيات .. أن البيانات.. والأمور الخارجة عن المألوف .. قد تؤثر كثيرا على سير هذه التوصيات كما حصل اليوم..

فقد ضرب وقف الخسارة (حتى الآن).. توصية الباوند-دولار التي وضعها اليوم بـ -117 نقطة..


واقتربت الأسعار كثيرا في عدد من الأزوج من الوقف.. وأراها فرصة جيدة بالدخول قبل وقف الخسارة بنقاط معقولة.. وتبقى الأهداف على حسب صبر المتاجر
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أشكركم جميعا على ماخطته أناملكم الكريمة..


تحياتي للجميع،.،

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هذه المداخلة كتبتها بتاريخ: 15/09/2004 بعد اقتراب الأسعار من وقف الخسارة كثيرا.. وكانت هناك فرص كثيرة وفي أكثر من زوج.. وارتدت الأسعار بعدها لأكثر من 1600 نقطة .! :omg_smile

أتمنى أن يكون الجميع قد استفاد منها..
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تحياتي،.،

[طلال السميري]

الوافي بارك الله فيك اخي الكريم
أنا الان اتابع توصية اليورو لهذا المحلل
كما تعرف التوصية هي

Recommendations:
Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2190. Keep profit target at 1.2500.

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سنتابع ماسيحصل
سلام

[alwafi]

الوافي بارك الله فيك اخي الكريم
أنا الان اتابع توصية اليورو لهذا المحلل
كما تعرف التوصية هي

Recommendations:

Bought EUR at 1.2301. Keep stop-loss at 1.2190. Keep profit target at 1.2500.

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سنتابع ماسيحصل
سلام

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رائع ياطلال..
وأقترح كذلك كل واحد من الأحبة يمسك له زوج .. ويتكتك على توصيته.. ويحط الشارت .. ويوضح النقاط الخ..

ولا شك لدي أننا سنخرج ببحوث مميزة للغاية.. ونقاش مثمر جدا.. وذو فائدة كبيرة للجميع..
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صدقني يا طلال..
أنني أتابع توصيات وتحليلات (بالان) منذ أكثر من سنتين.. وأصدقك القول والله.. نتائجه الشهرية (خيالية) بالفعل.. وخصوصا إذا عملنا تعديل بسيط على نقاط الدخول.. فالألف نقطة هذي ممكن نحققها خلال أسبوع وبكل سهولة.. <<< وعندي طريقة أخرى أيضا أستخدمها هنا.. وهي الدخول والخروج المتكرر.. وهي ناااااااجحة بكل المقاييس.! :thumbs_up

ولكن تنقصنا جميعا (الجرأة) من ناحية.. وعدم الثقة في توصيات الآخرين من جهة ثانية..
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عموما..
سعيد جدا جدا.. بهذه المتابعة من قبلك.. ويا ليت يتبرع كل أخ بمتابعة أحد الأزواج.. وهي 12 زوج فقط..
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تقبل تقديري واحترامي،.،